Mearsheimer: Highly-respected boomer, Putin-shill takes.
John Mearsheimer is a much-respected geopolitical analyst, which is code for he has carved himself out a cosy little niche that he can milk for the rest of his life (he is now 74).
His particular schtick seems to be telling geographically-and-historically-challenged Americans (99.9% of the population) basic geographical and historical facts while also selling timidity relabelled as "gnostic realism" out of the back of his camper van. He also poses as a kind of "Russia whisperer" who can "save" the World from a nuclear war.
The real truth, however, is that Mearsheimer is a busted flush who avoids getting exposed as the fraud he is due to his copious use of weasel words and the geopolitical stupidity of his audience.
This allows him to constantly backtrack through his own words, while shrugging off any ripples of shame with a carefully cultivated image of omniscience. Truly, in the land of the blind (America) the one-eyed man (Mearsheimer) is king. Elsewhere, he's just a squinting fool.
This allows him to constantly backtrack through his own words, while shrugging off any ripples of shame with a carefully cultivated image of omniscience. Truly, in the land of the blind (America) the one-eyed man (Mearsheimer) is king. Elsewhere, he's just a squinting fool.
None of this should be a surprise, as Mearsheimer is basically a product of a past age, one in which Russia managed to create the biggest Potemkin village lie ever, namely the meme that the Soviet Union was a "superpower." It never was.
Russia has been mass-producing low-grade memes for centuries
But never mind all that. Let's stick to the present case. Mearsheimer has been signally wrong on the Russian invasion.
In an often-referenced lecture given in 2015, he foolishly said, "if you really want to wreck Russia, what you should do is to encourage it to try to conquer Ukraine," before adding, "Putin is much too smart to try to do that."
In an often-referenced lecture given in 2015, he foolishly said, "if you really want to wreck Russia, what you should do is to encourage it to try to conquer Ukraine," before adding, "Putin is much too smart to try to do that."
How wrong he was! Putin's invasion in February was nothing less than an attempt at a total take-over of the Ukraine. The principal strike was clearly aimed at taking out the Zelenskyy government, taking over the capital city, and installing his own government in Kiev.
However, since then, Mearsheimer and his fans have been shamelessly backtracking through his failed analysis by mincing words as usual.
Now, for them, "to conquer" suddenly means the total and successful incorporation of all of Ukraine's territory into the Russia state. Clearly Putin wasn't aiming at that, so with that fig leaf around their wilting private parts, they hope to be in the clear. But trying to turn the Ukraine into a second Belarus by invading it with 200,000 troops and trying to take its capital is nothing less than attempted conquest. Putin definitely wasn't " too smart to try to do that," so Mearsheimer is busted.
Notice also that key to preserving Mearsheimer's reputation for intelligence is preserving Putin's.
Now, for them, "to conquer" suddenly means the total and successful incorporation of all of Ukraine's territory into the Russia state. Clearly Putin wasn't aiming at that, so with that fig leaf around their wilting private parts, they hope to be in the clear. But trying to turn the Ukraine into a second Belarus by invading it with 200,000 troops and trying to take its capital is nothing less than attempted conquest. Putin definitely wasn't " too smart to try to do that," so Mearsheimer is busted.
Notice also that key to preserving Mearsheimer's reputation for intelligence is preserving Putin's.
But, just as Putin has a few fall-back positions before total defeat stares him in the face, so do the Mearsheimerists. Their next line of defence is to reframe Putin's failed conquest by referring to all the damage it has caused, and then simply claim that that was the point all along.
This following passage from the same 2015 Mearsheimer speech is often quoted to show how prophetic and sybilline their hero is:
"What Putin is doing is he's basically in the process of wrecking Ukraine and he's telling the West in very simple terms, "you have two choices, you either back off and we go back to the status-quo-ante before February 22nd, 2014, where Ukraine is a buffer state, or you continue to play these games where you try and take Ukraine and make it a Western bastion on our doorstep, in which case, we'll wreck the country."
In the present 2022 case, this is a bit like claiming that the goal of Napoleon's invasion of Russia in 1812 was to churn up the roads a bit and set fire to a few shacks along the way.
"Wreck" by the way is a word that Mearsheimer really likes as we shall see, possibly because his own geopolitical takes are so shambolic.
In a recent interview with Mearsheimer, Freddie Sayers of Unherd tries to call out his bullshit:
"I want to know how can he still maintain that there is “no evidence” that Russia had ambitions to conquer Ukraine? How else are we to interpret that shocking moment when it became clear that the Russians were launching a full-scale invasion — from the North, the South and the East of the country?"
If you want a picture of a rat wriggling out of a trap, read Mearsheimer's weaselly response:
"The Russians invaded Ukraine with 190,000 troops at the very most. They made no effort to conquer all of Ukraine. They didn’t even come close. There is no way they could have conquered Ukraine with 190,000 troops. And they didn’t have the troops in reserve to do that. When the Germans invaded Poland, in 1939, they invaded with 1.5 million troops. That’s the size army you need to conquer a country like Ukraine, occupy it and then incorporate it into a greater Russia. You need a massive army. This was a limited aim strategy."
Yeh, nobody ever attempts to conquer a country unless they have an army of at least 1.5 million troops! Has this guy actually ever read any history!?
The fact that Russia's unlimited invasion failed is deftly reframed as a limited invasion that is, erm, succeeding! I had to laugh when I read that one.
As for all the damage done by Putin's thugs, that was "Mission Accomplished" all along:
"What the Russians have said they have wanted from the beginning is a neutral Ukraine. And if they can’t get a neutral Ukraine, what they’re going to do is create a dysfunctional rump state… They’ve taken a huge swath of territory in the East, they’ve annexed those oblasts that are now part of Russia. And at the same time, they’re destroying Ukrainian infrastructure. They’re wrecking the Ukrainian economy. It’s sickening to see what’s happening to Ukraine."
This is a perfect example of Mearsheimer moving the goalposts not to say anything of importance but simply to protect his own fake status as a geopolitical guru.
So much of what he says here is just total bullshit. It's quite possible to conquer -- or in this case attempt to conquer -- a country of Ukraine's size with "small armies," even armies smaller than Russia's "190,000," especially if you have been undermining its society for decades, believe that large parts of the country will welcome you as "liberators," and that their President is just a stupid ineffectual clown. This is clearly what the Russians believed.
So much of what he says here is just total bullshit. It's quite possible to conquer -- or in this case attempt to conquer -- a country of Ukraine's size with "small armies," even armies smaller than Russia's "190,000," especially if you have been undermining its society for decades, believe that large parts of the country will welcome you as "liberators," and that their President is just a stupid ineffectual clown. This is clearly what the Russians believed.
Typical low-grade Kremlin meme
The mere fact that the initial objective was Kiev tells you all you need to know about Putin's attack plan. It was an obvious decapitation attempt designed to create a second Lukashenko-style puppet regime in Kiev. It's equally disingenuous to say that the wrecking that then resulted from this plan falling apart is "proof" of the plan working.
Yes, the Ukraine has been hit hard, the weather is cold right now, and there has been infrastructure damage, notably to the electricity supply. But Russia isn't winning. The Ukraine isn't even being turned into a "dysfunctional rump state," as Mearsheimer claims and hopes. It's coping with this, receiving more weapons and aid, and it's still a killing ground for Putin's low-grade armies, increasingly made up of unwilling conscripts and the scrapings of the Russian gulags.
The real degradation going on is in Russia. This Potemkin state is now viewed the same way ISIS was viewed some years ago, as an insane terrorist entity. You might think that there would be a small upside to that, as Russia has a nuclear arsenal, and nobody wants to provoke the loony with the A-bombs. But it looks like China has decided to seal off that route, telling Putin in no uncertain terms to stop waving around his nuclear dick. His bluff has essentially been called.
We had a story on that here at Neokrat weeks ago.
We had a story on that here at Neokrat weeks ago.
Sanctions mean that Russia's economy and technology is fucked. The Kremlin has played all of its cards of hard power and soft power to minimal effect, and defeat is staring it in the face.
In fact, the West can ensure Russia's defeat any time it wants just by supplying enough superior weaponry to the Ukrainians, but it is choosing not to do this all at once. The reason is simple: The West wants Russia to glide softly downwards into defeat, not plunge chaotically. This is clearly the consensus that has been reached between Washington, Brussels, and Beijing.
In fact, the West can ensure Russia's defeat any time it wants just by supplying enough superior weaponry to the Ukrainians, but it is choosing not to do this all at once. The reason is simple: The West wants Russia to glide softly downwards into defeat, not plunge chaotically. This is clearly the consensus that has been reached between Washington, Brussels, and Beijing.
Barring a miracle, Russia will lose this war, and, when it does, the struggle will then move to within Russia itself. What we will see there may be a replay of the break-up of the Soviet Union, but on a smaller scale.
Russia, itself could break up into smaller parts, not just ethnic but also regional. Just as London was too far away to control Canada, Australia, and New Zealand, so a weakened and humiliated Moscow may be too far away to control Vladivostok, Irkutsk, and even St. Petersburg.
Yes, it is not the Ukraine that will be turned into a dysfunctional rump state, it is Russia. As for Mearsheimer he will just have his head stuck up his own rump, right where it belongs.
They couldn't just spread doubt by ignoring the story.
Russia, itself could break up into smaller parts, not just ethnic but also regional. Just as London was too far away to control Canada, Australia, and New Zealand, so a weakened and humiliated Moscow may be too far away to control Vladivostok, Irkutsk, and even St. Petersburg.
Yes, it is not the Ukraine that will be turned into a dysfunctional rump state, it is Russia. As for Mearsheimer he will just have his head stuck up his own rump, right where it belongs.
They couldn't just spread doubt by ignoring the story.
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Colin Liddell is the Chief Editor of Neokrat and the author of Interviews & Obituaries, a collection of encounters with the dead and the famous. Support his work by buying it here (USA), here (UK), and here (Australia).
The 'neutrality' argument is so fucking moronic. Right up there with 'aggressive NATO expansion'.
ReplyDeleteLol
ReplyDeleteIt's a shame you don't narrate your own articles any more Collin, you have a good voice.
ReplyDeleteThanks for that, but my voice has been shredded by years of ill-usage in classroom situations, so I prefer to use it sparingly.
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