Trump in Scotland
Already the unfiltered, kneejerk, garbage analysis on social media is that Trump "crushed" the European Union in trade discussions, finalised in the Ayrshire golfing village of Turnberry.
It is true that the deal struck between Ursula von der Leyen and Donald Trump seems to "favour" America, with a 15% tariff (down from a threatened 30%) on all EU imports to America, something that will be paid mainly by American consumers.
European consumers meanwhile will allowed to buy whatever they buy from the USA (corn chips?) tariff free. The deal also includes military tech and energy that the EU was probably going to buy from the US anyway. Long-term, however, the EU is now on course to start making much of what it formerly imported from the US.
The key point of the deal, however, is that America and the EU stay locked in relatively normal economic interaction as an underpinning of Western geopolitical power.
The EU's analysis of the present situation is that Europe is facing a unique threat in the confluence of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the election of a possible Russian asset and a definite corrupt asshole in Donald Trump.
The key point about this threat is that it is essentially short-term. Russia is getting close to collapse and Trump won't be around for long, which is exactly why he is able to max out on "mad man" trade negotiation strategies.
The key point about this threat is that it is essentially short-term. Russia is getting close to collapse and Trump won't be around for long, which is exactly why he is able to max out on "mad man" trade negotiation strategies.
The EU going hard-line on trade with Trump would merely have played into the hands of those trying to split the West and push America in a more permanent isolationist direction. It was therefore imperative for the EU to avoid a big split with America. Von der Leyen successfully avoided that, meaning that America will remain tied into the security networks on which Europe still relies. In short, "Agent Krasnov" failed in his prime objective and may be flying through a window soon.
Meanwhile back home...
Electorally he will certainly be flying through a window. By November next year, it is highly likely that Trump will be reduced to an absolute lame duck President, with the Democrats projected to win Congress. In fact, taxing imports with tariffs is likely to increase the chances of that happening, as it will fuel inflation in the US.
If the US-EU deal is as "one-sided" as Trump-boosters and Russia bots claim, then we will see major revisions to this agreement after Trump is cut down to size in the Midterms.
What this deal really symbolises is that the EU is no longer just a mere economic entity, focused on the minutiae of trading arrangements, but is much more of a geopolitical player focused on the problems of war and peace and the balance of power.
What this deal really symbolises is that the EU is no longer just a mere economic entity, focused on the minutiae of trading arrangements, but is much more of a geopolitical player focused on the problems of war and peace and the balance of power.
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Colin Liddell is the Chief Editor of Neokrat and the author of Interviews & Obituaries, a collection of encounters with the dead and the famous. Support his work by buying his book here (USA), here (UK), and here (Australia), or by taking out a paid subscription on his Substack.
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