Italy's next PM
by Daniel Barge
The results of the Italian general election are still coming in, but it is already clear that the polls were right: Italy has just elected a strong populist government by a landslide. This will dominate both houses of parliament and change the course Italy has been on.
The exit polls so far look like this:
The electoral map looks like this. Most notably the 5-Star movement seems to have evaporated in much of the South:
And here is the seat projection for the lower house, showing something of a political massacre:
The winning coalition includes three main parties, namely The Brothers of Italy, Lega, and Forza Italia, as well as a grouping of smaller parties.
The media will tell you this is a "far-right" government and point to the ancient "Fascist" roots of The Brothers of Italy, but the truth is the coalition is neither Left nor Right. Instead, it includes disparate elements, some of them centrist, Christian Democratic, and even pro-EU.
What we can tentatively say is that the winning group is populist and will probably oppose mass immigration, promote policies that support the family, and reject domination by the EU. It will also follow somewhat left-leaning economic policies that resist Neo-Liberalism, while seeking to remain a fully participating member of the EU and NATO.
There may be certain contradictions in its positions, but those expecting it to break ranks with the anti-Putin consensus in Europe will probably be deeply disappointed. Indeed, one interesting aspect of the election is how poorly the Lega's leader Matteo Salvini did within the winning bloc. In the past Salvini has been a big booster of Putin and appears to have suffered as a consequence. Lega has been relegated to a junior partner, and now there will probably be a push to elect a new leader of the party.
Coming just days after a similar result in the Swedish general election, this result essentially shows that, given the choice, European voters want societies that are not subject to radical economic or demographic change.
In this respect, both elections can be called victories for "left-wing conservatism," although it may simply be better to discard the tired, old, cliched "left-right" political spectrum for one that instead emphasises economic, cultural, demographic, and sexual stability.
Thanks to the truly democratic systems operating in these countries, it has never been clearer what Europeans really want.
There may be certain contradictions in its positions, but those expecting it to break ranks with the anti-Putin consensus in Europe will probably be deeply disappointed. Indeed, one interesting aspect of the election is how poorly the Lega's leader Matteo Salvini did within the winning bloc. In the past Salvini has been a big booster of Putin and appears to have suffered as a consequence. Lega has been relegated to a junior partner, and now there will probably be a push to elect a new leader of the party.
Coming just days after a similar result in the Swedish general election, this result essentially shows that, given the choice, European voters want societies that are not subject to radical economic or demographic change.
In this respect, both elections can be called victories for "left-wing conservatism," although it may simply be better to discard the tired, old, cliched "left-right" political spectrum for one that instead emphasises economic, cultural, demographic, and sexual stability.
Thanks to the truly democratic systems operating in these countries, it has never been clearer what Europeans really want.
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