After recent military setbacks East of the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv, a sense of impending doom has started to envelop the Kremlin. The war has not been going well for the Kremlin for some time, but the effective collapse of the central frontline based on the city of Izyium in recent days has seen morale plummet among former supporters of the war, many of them even more hard line than President Putin himself.
These include Igor Girkin, the former commander of the pro-Russian "separatist" forces that seized parts of the Donbass in 2014.
“The war in Ukraine will continue until the complete defeat of Russia,” Girkin said in a video address to his 430,000 followers on Telegram on Monday. “We have already lost, the rest is just a matter of time.”
Girkin, a former Russian intelligence colonel who was a commander of the pro-Russian separatist forces in 2014, is the most prominent voice within an increasingly loud and angry group of ultra-nationalist and pro-war bloggers criticising the Kremlin for its failure.
Starshe Eddy, a popular pro-war Russian blogger with an audience of 500,000 on Telegram, has also drawn attention to the darkening picture for the Russian military:
“It must be stated that in Balakliia, the armed forces of Ukraine have completely outplayed our command.”
Others hardcore supporters of the war, like Andrei Morozov, another popular pro-Kremlin blogger, have been calling for Vladimir Putin to declare a full-scale mobilisation:
“Mobilisation is, let’s put it bluntly, our only chance to avoid a crushing defeat,” wrote Morozov.
Such a move, however, would almost certainly lead to massive protests, which would quickly morph into anti-government demonstrations and a possible revolution, ousting Putin.
For this reason, Putin will continue to fight the war with a rag-bag army of mercenaries, conscripted men from the Donbas, and the scrapings of the Russian prison system.
For this reason, Putin will continue to fight the war with a rag-bag army of mercenaries, conscripted men from the Donbas, and the scrapings of the Russian prison system.
In an interview with the Guardian, Mark Galeotti, an expert in Russian security affairs noted the increasing gloom and desperation on the Russian side:
“They are certainly getting angrier, and with good and obvious reason, especially as the gap between the official line and the reality on the ground widens,” said Galeotti. “Some are very dubious sources but there are also those – like Girkin – who know what they’re talking about and clearly are in touch with people at the front or who otherwise are in the know.”
An increasing problem for these Russian war shills is the Kremlin's tendency to just ignore bad news, something that is drawing increasing criticism from former supporters like pro-Kremlin war journalist Aleksandr Kots:
“We need to start doing something about the system where our leadership doesn’t like to talk about bad news, and their subordinates don’t want to upset their bosses.”
Let's face it, bad news is all the Russians will have to talk about from now on, as Putin's options become ever more limited. Also, memes are going to get brutal...
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