ISRAEL AND IRAN'S WAR IS BAD FOR RUSSIA'S WAR

NOTE: Girkin is a Russian ultranationalist currently under arrest in Russia. This article was lifted from his Telegram social media account which remains free.

by Igor Girkin

An attack on Iran had long been expected. I believe that without permission, coordination and direct support from the US, Israel would never have launched such a large scale operation. This is clearly not a limited action.

Given the number of casualties among Iran's top military and political leadership, Iran, of course, will retaliate and, in my opinion, already is. Overall, we are witnessing the beginning of a major Middle Eastern war, in which Iran is in a very weak position.

Why is its position weak? Because Israel has excellently prepared the ground for its attack through a series of consistent actions. First, the Iranian president, who supported Syria and Assad, was removed. The next Iranian president pulled Iranian troops out of Syria, which significantly weakened the Syrian government's position. As a result, within two weeks, Syria was crushed and destroyed.

Much of its territory came under Turkish control, while a significant portion fell under Israeli control (the strategically important Golan Heights). Now Iran essentially has no way to reach Israel through a ground operation without entering a direct conflict with Türkiye. And Türkiye has a very strong army. Fighting it would be extremely difficult for Iran.

Now, Israel, naturally, is using its significant superiority in missile and air power to strike Iran, not expecting a serious or truly painful counterattack. If Iran does take any action, it's possible the US will get involved standing behind Israel and seize the opportunity to defeat Iran.

What does this mean for us? 

Two main threats. 

First and foremost, the termination of our southern corridor, since we were actively using Iran to supply oil and other raw materials to India and other countries. This route was quite important for us. Now in the east we only have China left as a transit route for our goods.

Secondly, of course, as Iran is subjected to more and more attacks and losses an increasing number of industrial facilities and loses an increasing number of industrial facilities, it won't be able to supply us with weapons and ammunition as it did before, which will also affect the course of military operations.