"Mene mene, tekel upharsin"
The "Three-day Special Military Operation" that Putin launched back in 2022 was always a high stakes gamble. When it didn't work -- something that was apparent very early on -- the best course for Putin would have been to immediately pull out and make peace on the basis of giving back the Crimea and Donbas, and Ukraine joining NATO and the EU.
Instead, Putin doubled down on failure, and trusted to the hope that Kremlin ops in the West would deliver success by the back door. This slightly more realistic hope, however, has proved equally chimerical, and now Russia is not only staring defeat in the face, it is increasingly staring total collapse in the face.
In fact, even if Ukraine somehow collapsed first helping Russia to pull off a last gasp "military victory," that would probably be just as destructive to Russia as an actual Ukrainian victory. This is because Russia has been so bent out of shape economically by this 3-day war (stretching to 4 years) that the extremely bumpy attempt to transition back to a "peace time" economy would shake Russia to bits.
Yes, Putin will not only lose this war, but the actions he has taken have ensured that Russia is doomed and is ready to slide into the dustbin of history, possibly with massive inflows of refugees to the West.
This raises all sorts of possible scenarios, including the possibility of "another Russia" being reborn like a deformed phoenix out of the ashes. This would, however, be the worst result, as it would be a reboot of a stale idea, and would represent a total lack of historical evolution.
Much better would be a situation that developed the potential of the vast swathe of territory held back by its Russification and a solution that ironed out the glaring inherent contradictions of Russianism.
The problem with Russia is that it is simply not plugged into the global economy in any meaningful way. This is due to its extreme lack of a "thalassocratic" element, to use the terminology of Eurasianism. In a nutshell, Russia has always been a tragically over-"tellurocratic" state.
Thalassocratic essentially means a state enlivened by access to the sea, while a tellurocratic state means one deadened by being landlocked. As an analogy, imagine an animal that lacked a circulatory system. This means that Russia has always essentially been a dead piece of meat or, at best, a zombie.
Thalassocratic essentially means a state enlivened by access to the sea, while a tellurocratic state means one deadened by being landlocked. As an analogy, imagine an animal that lacked a circulatory system. This means that Russia has always essentially been a dead piece of meat or, at best, a zombie.
This was actually its 'good point' at one time, when the Mongol hordes stumbled on a backdoor form of thalassocratic mobility through their adaptation of highly evolved mobile tactics.
This temporarily turned the Steppes into a giant sea and temporarily gave life both to them and to Russia. But, essentially, the dead, lumpen quality of Russian distance, its forests and its swamps, helped to save thalassocratic Europe from the pseudo-thalassocratic threat of the Mongols.
This temporarily turned the Steppes into a giant sea and temporarily gave life both to them and to Russia. But, essentially, the dead, lumpen quality of Russian distance, its forests and its swamps, helped to save thalassocratic Europe from the pseudo-thalassocratic threat of the Mongols.
But the creation of Russia as a "zombie empire" under the Romanovs, then the Soviets, and now Putin has outlived any transitory usefulness by around 500 years. All that this leaves the world with is a giant death zone, whose only relevance are the carbon fuels that the economically vibrant thalassocracies can extract from it; carbon fuels that would have no more value than swamp water without the virility and vitality of the thalassocracies.
This is also the root of the contradiction of Russia -- namely the Russian state assumes a parasitic role on something that would have no utility for Russia itself without the thalassocracies, and then attempts to use those revenues to harm the thalassocracies and "tellurocize" the world.
However, thanks to Putin and his failure, we are presented with an opportunity to resolve the contradictions of this parasitic zombie empire.
The telluric nature of Russian can only escape its zombie nature in union with the live-giving force of the thalassocracies. This was partly demonstrated by the Soviet Union, when the Zombie Stalinist heartland gained some traction on the semi-thalassocratic edge of Europe, as well as due to its access to the Black Sea. But this was an unstable and unbalanced concoction that was dragged down by the dominance of the telluric element.
The telluric nature of Russian can only escape its zombie nature in union with the live-giving force of the thalassocracies. This was partly demonstrated by the Soviet Union, when the Zombie Stalinist heartland gained some traction on the semi-thalassocratic edge of Europe, as well as due to its access to the Black Sea. But this was an unstable and unbalanced concoction that was dragged down by the dominance of the telluric element.
For the union of male and female to be fruitful, the male element must be dominant. Likewise for the union of the thalassocratic and telluric element to be fruitful, the thalassocratic element must be dominant. The thalassocratic is the Yang to the telluric Ying. This, in a nutshell, is the problem of Russia.
The solution to this is obvious, the vast dead zombie-like telluric mass of Russia must be divided up and then united to potent thalassocratic entities. The ideal solution, given Russia's size, position, and condition, would be a three-way division between China, the EU, and Japan, but Japan is not yet politically ready, and even the EU has certain issues that still hold it back.
China, taking over Russia on its own, however, is a doomed project, as China is already an uneasy hybrid of the telluric and the thalassocratic, and taking over all Russia would quickly push it into the telluric realm and thus political necrosis.
If Europe could step up, then a more feasible solution and political evolution would be possible. This would involve partitioning Russia.
The best line to do this would probably be the Yenisei River, which neatly cuts through Russia all the way from the Arctic to the Mongolian border. The beauty of this line is that it creates a clear geographical border and dumps most of Russia's population, which is still largely European in nature, culture, and affectation, on the West side, while China gets slightly more land.
The best line to do this would probably be the Yenisei River, which neatly cuts through Russia all the way from the Arctic to the Mongolian border. The beauty of this line is that it creates a clear geographical border and dumps most of Russia's population, which is still largely European in nature, culture, and affectation, on the West side, while China gets slightly more land.
The exact figures would be 93% of population to the West and 48% of the land, including the biggest gas and oil reserves.
It would also be advisable to integrate this part of Russia into the EU not in one lumpy telluric state, but in several smaller more nimble and easily digestible entities. Once extra lands are given to Finland, Ukraine, and Georgia, new states could be set up, centred on Moscow, St Petersburg, in the Volga Region and in the Trans-Urals. This would make the integration of these dead, telluric regions into the potent thalassocratic network of Europe all the smoother.
It would also be advisable to integrate this part of Russia into the EU not in one lumpy telluric state, but in several smaller more nimble and easily digestible entities. Once extra lands are given to Finland, Ukraine, and Georgia, new states could be set up, centred on Moscow, St Petersburg, in the Volga Region and in the Trans-Urals. This would make the integration of these dead, telluric regions into the potent thalassocratic network of Europe all the smoother.
Japan, too, could realistically be given some scraps from the table, like Sakhalin and the Kuriles, despite its lack of political readiness.
One may disagree with this solution as much as one wants, but can you really argue that it goes against the true nature of the Eurasian ideology?
One may disagree with this solution as much as one wants, but can you really argue that it goes against the true nature of the Eurasian ideology?
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Colin Liddell is the Chief Editor of Neokrat and the author of Interviews & Obituaries, a collection of encounters with the dead and the famous. Support his work by buying his book here (USA), here (UK), and here (Australia), or by taking out a paid subscription on his Substack.
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