successful sea-drone attacks on their now largely submerged Black Sea fleet
Following the almost total defeat of the Russian navy in the Black Sea by the Ukrainians using various kinds of sea drones, the world of naval warfare has already shifted radically. This is yet another reason why Trump's recent announcement of "Trump class battleships" was absurd.
But what kind of navies are we likely to see in the future?
But what kind of navies are we likely to see in the future?
A good place to find out is to look at Royal Navy thinking. Dues to Britain being an island nation, naval warfare is something it is forced to take quite seriously. The example of the war in the Black Sea has added strength to forward thinking, and that is now being taking seriously, as demonstrated by investment patterns.
We are thus on a cusp of a transformative era. This will be driven by rapid advancements in autonomous and uncrewed technologies. Over the next 10-20 years, Britain's fleet will evolve into a "hybrid" force, where low-cost, uncrewed systems, designed to achieve "attrition," will augment more traditional crewed vessels, which will assume a more "behind the battlezone" role.
The changes will effect capabilities in escort duties, intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance, and outer-layer defence. This shift aligns with First Sea Lord General Gwyn Jenkins' mantra of "uncrewed where possible" and the new Royal Navy doctrine of using flexible, cost-effective solutions that can be adapted and quickly scaled up to high production in times of threat and war.
The RN's vision focuses on building "good enough" uncrewed systems that can be deployed rapidly and used to wage attrition warfare in high-threat environments.
Thanks to advances in tech, it is now more possible to provide "magazine depth" (additional firepower and sensors) without the complexities of crewed ships. Yes, without all that hammock space, latrines, life support, and damage control systems, a lot more bang-for-the-buck can be crammed into hulls.
This swing towards cost-effective solutions that can be quickly scaled up mirrors historical precedents, such as the Flower-class corvettes of 1939. These were basic, affordable designs produced in large numbers to meet urgent wartime needs, with more refined classes and variations produced later.
This "concept of operations" (CONOPS) involves a basic template then modifying it through real-world experience, rather than the prolonged prototyping and attempts at perfection that have dominated naval thinking in the past.
The plan is to field systems swiftly, accepting initial imperfections in order to gain operational insights and refine them progressively. This approach is much more doable thanks to the increasingly unmanned nature of future natives. Unlike in the past, when things don't quite work, there won't be a flurry of telegrams to hundreds of grieving widows.
The changes will effect capabilities in escort duties, intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance, and outer-layer defence. This shift aligns with First Sea Lord General Gwyn Jenkins' mantra of "uncrewed where possible" and the new Royal Navy doctrine of using flexible, cost-effective solutions that can be adapted and quickly scaled up to high production in times of threat and war.
ACUA's proposed 43-meter unmanned submarine killer
A STRATEIC PIVOT TO UNCREWED AUGMENTATION
The RN's vision focuses on building "good enough" uncrewed systems that can be deployed rapidly and used to wage attrition warfare in high-threat environments.
Thanks to advances in tech, it is now more possible to provide "magazine depth" (additional firepower and sensors) without the complexities of crewed ships. Yes, without all that hammock space, latrines, life support, and damage control systems, a lot more bang-for-the-buck can be crammed into hulls.
This swing towards cost-effective solutions that can be quickly scaled up mirrors historical precedents, such as the Flower-class corvettes of 1939. These were basic, affordable designs produced in large numbers to meet urgent wartime needs, with more refined classes and variations produced later.
This "concept of operations" (CONOPS) involves a basic template then modifying it through real-world experience, rather than the prolonged prototyping and attempts at perfection that have dominated naval thinking in the past.
The plan is to field systems swiftly, accepting initial imperfections in order to gain operational insights and refine them progressively. This approach is much more doable thanks to the increasingly unmanned nature of future natives. Unlike in the past, when things don't quite work, there won't be a flurry of telegrams to hundreds of grieving widows.
HMS Prince of Wales, launched 1939, unexpectedly sunk 1941 with 327 fatalities
This rough-and-ready pragmatic approach is crucial in an era where technological cat-and-mouse games—such as countermeasures against autonomous systems—demand flexibility and speed. Here again events in the Ukraine have been ground-breaking in demonstrating this new rhythm of war, not only on land but at sea.
EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES AND PARTNERSHIPS
Several initiatives are already underway, many funded by industry, to bring these capabilities to fruition. In the UK, projects include:
Subsurface Systems: M-Subs' XV Excalibur and BAE Systems' Herne extra-large uncrewed underwater vehicles (XLUUVs), designed for persistent underwater operations. Helsing's Fathom SG-1 anti-submarine warfare (ASW) Wave Glider.
Surface and Aerial Platforms: ACUA's 43-meter ASW medium uncrewed surface vessel (MUSV) and Leonardo's Proteus uncrewed helicopter for surveillance and targeting.
Larger Uncrewed Surface Vessels (USVs): Babcock's partnership with US firm Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII) to develop the Romulus class of 140-meter "Large Uncrewed Surface Vessels" (LUSVs).
The Romulus, currently under construction in the US, features a commercial-standard hull for rapid production, AI-driven autonomy via HII's "Odyssey" system, and modular payloads for missions like striking, force protection, and air-sea operations. BAE Systems has also proposed a concept based on the Triton trimaran hull, offering high endurance and versatility.
The Anglo-American nature of this project, however, may need to be rethought within a European context due to the increased threat posed to NATO by the current U.S. administration.
As part of the Atlantic Bastion strategic concept to counter Russian submarine threats in the North Atlantic, the Royal Navy several vessel requirements.
The first involves small surveillance UAV swarms, including Wave Gliders, to establish a persistent subsea sensor barrier in the Greenland-Iceland-UK (GIUK) gap.
Next, the Navy's "Persistent Operational Deployment Systems" (PODS) program is exploring autonomous offboard systems for mine hunting and anti-submarine ops, with uncrewed platforms to enhance safety and efficiency. The plans also include acquiring up to 20 drone ships by the mid-2030s, with the first autonomous escort vessel expected in the water by 2026.
Babcock's recently unveiled ARMOR (Autonomous Remote Operations Room) initiative aims to provide command-and-control infrastructure for these autonomous fleets, and linking back to crewed assets.
The Helsing's SG-1 Fathom, a surveillance drone, will stay at sea for up to 3 months
There are also attempts to plug in unmanned systems to bolster carrier strike groups in regions like the Indo-Pacific, but, needless to say, such projects developed before the second Trump (or crypto-Putin) administration, are now under threat due to America's increasingly erratic and unreliable foreign policy.
CHALLENGES AND ADAPTATIONS
Supporting and maintaining uncrewed vessels at sea requires new logistical models, involving forward-deployed tenders and automated resupply. Crewed command ships in development, such as the Type 32 frigate (still in the concept stage), may need considerable modifications to operate these flotillas of uncrewed assets.
Ironically, in the short term, these unmanned systems could demand more manpower for oversight, integration, and troubleshooting before full autonomy reduces crew requirements.
The 2025 Strategic Defence Review highlights potential evolutions, such as transitioning from Type 45 destroyers to minimally crewed or autonomous air dominance systems using directed energy weapons (think lasers or microwaves!). The immaturity of some of the new technologies and the unpredictable nature of countermeasures will see a period of overlap between present crewed and future uncrewed systems.
A HYBRID NAVY BY 2045
Looking ahead 10-20 years, the Royal Navy will likely feature a diversified fleet in which uncrewed systems form the outer layers of defence, providing persistent presence and expendable assets.
This hybrid model will enhance deterrence against threats like Russian submarines, while freeing crewed vessels for complex, high-value missions.
By 2035, expect widespread integration of Unmanned Surface Vessels (USVs) and Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) in operations, with numbers scaling to dozens or hundreds through rapid production.
By 2045, autonomy will dominate routine tasks, reshaping naval warfare with swarms, AI-driven decision-making, and modular designs.
This evolution, inspired by openness to wartime ingenuity and accelerated by industry partnerships, should hopefully see the Royal Navy reborn as an agile, forward-leaning force designed for an increasingly unpredictable and chaotic world.
The Proteus unmanned anti-submarine helicopter with a unit price estimated at £3.5 million
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