by Nix Jeelvy
As many of you know, it is the perpetual risk for an online commentator, who routinely probes the deepest reaches of understanding, to disappear up that most vexing of crevices, namely his own arse. Nevertheless, it is possible to take certain steps to prevent such a grimly comical fate. One of my favourite is to go back to earlier commentary and even more particularly, prediction and see how good it looks through the older and wiser eyes of hindsight.
On November 6th 2024, I made the following prediction/commentary on my Telegram channel.
“Blompf has won the American election. This will result in several horrifying consequences:
1. The separation of America from Europe.
Europe can no longer count of America as a reliable security partner. Despite all copes to the contrary, Blompf is an asset of the Kremlin and will act to weaken Europe as well as subvert the defence of Ukraine. Europe must now start rearming rapidly. We have until the inauguration to regain our old strength, not only to help Ukraine, but also for our own defence. The USA should be shut out from intelligence sharing and the security framework, given that its commander in chief is now a Kremlin asset. Countries like Hungary, Slovakia and Macedonia should be similarly shut out for the same reasons. Every country where “based populists” of the Chabad-Finkelstein network are anywhere near power should at the very least be looked at with suspicion.
Similarly, the nations of Europe must develop sovereign nuclear deterrents if they can. It’s been said that Poland, Sweden and Ukraine have the capacity to develop their own nukes within 6 months. These efforts should have started yesterday and also be pooled among the willing nations. Ideally, we should have the capacity to turn Moscow, Peking, Istanbul, Tel Aviv and indeed, Washington into glass craters before January 20th 2025. But we need to start right now.
2. The Fall of America.
The ideology of the second Trump admin, or more precisely the J. D. Vance admin is neoreaction. I’ve spent the better part of the last decade reading the NRx blogs and can conclude that the aim of NRx is to turn America into Yeltsin’s Russia. This means nosediving the economy so it can be bought up for pennies on the dollar by cronies and oligarchs. Elon Musk has already hinted to this being the Trump/Musk plan for America. Americans will be impoverished, stripped down to the bone and turned into animalistic, functionally Third World creatures, much like modern Russians. This will permanently sever America from the European racial body and turn it into another hostile shithole and member of the "Outer Revolt." While the hope for Europe is slim, the hope for America is virtually nonexistent.
3. The end of white identity politics in America
The 2024 election has showed that very few people calling themselves white nationalists are concerned with white well-being or white primacy. Rather, their primary interest seems to be periodically annoying liberals. It’s not a question of a few rotten apples, but a branch and tree which have produced nothing but duds with very few exceptions. As the Trump/Vance admin starts implementing the NRx program, it’ll likely start arresting what’s left of American white identitarianism, likely on trumped-up terrorism charges or under the new anti-antisemitism bills they plan on introducing. Like Putin’s Russia, the American authoritarian civic nationalists will sweep aside all ethnonationalist opposition.”
So, let’s see how the unwise past holds up to the cruel scrutiny of the present.
On point one, I can conclude that I’ve been partially correct. While America has not only separated from Europe and, indeed, as the Greenland and Canada threats revealed, has become an active enemy of Europe. However, I underestimated both Europe’s own existing resilience and the ability of other powers, chief among them Russia and China to exploit the confusion in Western ranks. I was correct about the acts, but overestimated their possible impact. I also note with a dose of satisfaction that most European nations have indeed followed my recommendation and have started the rearming process, slow though it may be (hey, munition factories take time to build and spin up production) and have also cut out the US and other problematic countries out of the intelligence loop. The only front where I’ve seen no progress is the nuclear one, though I note that even if Sweden, Poland and Ukraine were developing nuclear weapons, they’d hardly tell me about it. I’d assess myself as having been correct, even though I didn’t predict 100% of the present situation, because I erred on the side of caution and my proposed course of action would have been correct regardless of my error.
On point two, the fall of America, I find that I’ve been completely vindicated, and then some. I take very little pleasure in this, because point two is the most devastating in impact. Now, while I’m sure that lots of Europeans will claim that Americans have always been like what they are now, I’m sorry to say that I’ll have to disagree. America was for a long time a civilised European country. Sure, it was always different, but I’ve never found America to be in any substantial way more different than European countries are amongst themselves. America has been greatly impoverished by the tariffs, manufacturing is in freefall, farmers are becoming dependent on government handouts due to loss of markets, and the administration’s war on science has not only caused legions of scientists to lose their jobs and emigrate, but also resulted in the preventable deaths of Americans due to flooding and hurricanes as a result of the loss of accurate weather prediction.
On the other hand, the rich have never been doing better. Roughly 50% of consumption is the result of spending by the top 10% by wealth. The US economy is in recession in all sectors except AI vapourware and general scamming. Trump has not only pardoned every fraudster, crypto scammer and bilker he could find, he’s also had his little friend Elon Musk dismantle the regulatory state which protects Americans from fraud, scams, and abuse by financial institutions. Now, contrary to the assumptions of right wingers, poverty and pointless hardship don’t ennoble people, but rather reduce them to the level of animals who’ll do anything to survive. And by anything, we mean anything. Even the disgusting, degrading things, even the betrayal of all dearly-held principles. Prosperity is a prerequisite for morality, in many ways, at least at the societal level.
The American psyche has already degraded. We’re seeing vatnik-like pronouncements from Americans online. Of course, due to the flood of Indian scammers trying to profit from Western political polarisation, we can’t really know for sure if those are Americans, though I suspect that in the deepest recesses of the MAGA cult, the degradation is both real and worse than what we can see on social media. I suppose the next step would be for Americans to start physically degrading and to start resembling the orc-like Russians, or perhaps they will degenerate in some uniquely American way. We have a rough “right wing meathead” phenotype among the YouTube gun community which includes skin-tight t-shirts, steroid-fuelled glam muscles, a gender-affirming beard and a tacticool baseball cap. The women (and some men) have thoroughly mutilated themselves and developed Mar-A-Lago face. I foresee that the further degeneration of Americans will follow the general rules laid out in this video.
However, if you’ve been cheering me on, as we finally come to the third point, you’ll find that, as the Japanese say, even monkeys fall from trees, and even Monkeydonians get things wrong in their predictions. Does it mean that white nationalism is well and good in America? Well, that depends on your definition of good.
I wouldn’t say that I was completely wrong on point 3. It is indeed true that white nationalists in America (and sadly elsewhere) are primarily concerned with periodically annoying liberals and otherwise lack political ambition. However, I greatly misjudged the degree to which they’d be targeted by the Trump regime. Indeed, in retrospect, it seems clear that the regime would not persecute a faction which keeps supporting it even as it runs roughshod over their supposed priorities. In my prediction, I was bilking the Russian model, where Putin started going after Tesak and Nikitin, forcing the remaining Russian nationalists to relocate to Ukraine in order to survive, but there’s a crucial difference. Tesak and Nikitin never supported Putin, nor did they lead young, nationalistic Russians astray and affirming his anti-Russian regime. In the future, I’ll have to actually put in the work and think about alignments and outcomes instead of hoping the future will be the same as the past.
However, just because it hasn’t been squished by the Trump administration, it doesn’t mean that American white nationalism is doing well. The institutions are all more or less intact, though shorn of energy and funds. Less is getting accomplished on the policy or ideology front. Indeed, the abusive marriage with MAGA has sullied white nationalism with MAGA’s stench of paedophilia, criminality, support for oligarchy, Zionism, thuggery, corruption and general incompetence. By nailing their colours to Trump’s mast, American white nationalists have aligned themselves with an administration hostile to Europe, but friendly to Israel, Qatar, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Russia, China and other Third-World shitholes inimical to the Western way of life. The unfortunate association with the political right has led them to become a marginally paler tribe of reactionary barbarians, cheering on the increasing enshittification of American life.
I wouldn’t say that I was completely wrong on point 3. It is indeed true that white nationalists in America (and sadly elsewhere) are primarily concerned with periodically annoying liberals and otherwise lack political ambition. However, I greatly misjudged the degree to which they’d be targeted by the Trump regime. Indeed, in retrospect, it seems clear that the regime would not persecute a faction which keeps supporting it even as it runs roughshod over their supposed priorities. In my prediction, I was bilking the Russian model, where Putin started going after Tesak and Nikitin, forcing the remaining Russian nationalists to relocate to Ukraine in order to survive, but there’s a crucial difference. Tesak and Nikitin never supported Putin, nor did they lead young, nationalistic Russians astray and affirming his anti-Russian regime. In the future, I’ll have to actually put in the work and think about alignments and outcomes instead of hoping the future will be the same as the past.
However, just because it hasn’t been squished by the Trump administration, it doesn’t mean that American white nationalism is doing well. The institutions are all more or less intact, though shorn of energy and funds. Less is getting accomplished on the policy or ideology front. Indeed, the abusive marriage with MAGA has sullied white nationalism with MAGA’s stench of paedophilia, criminality, support for oligarchy, Zionism, thuggery, corruption and general incompetence. By nailing their colours to Trump’s mast, American white nationalists have aligned themselves with an administration hostile to Europe, but friendly to Israel, Qatar, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Russia, China and other Third-World shitholes inimical to the Western way of life. The unfortunate association with the political right has led them to become a marginally paler tribe of reactionary barbarians, cheering on the increasing enshittification of American life.
So, I’ll give myself the following grade: Mostly right on point 1, 100% correct on point 2 and mostly wrong on point 3. However, I won’t say I was wrong enough to modify my core assumptions. Small pleasures, I know, as roughly 160 million white people sink into the darkness of authoritarian civic nationalism with slim hope of emerging from it. I suppose we all have to take our little pleasures where we can get them.
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