There are a lot of questions in the air right now due to the rather unhinged but so far "successful" Israeli attack on Iran.
The main one seems to be whether Trump and America will join the war or not. But right behind this question, is an almost as large, if not even larger one.
This is: What will China do?
This is: What will China do?
Since extremely heavy sanctions were imposed on Iran decades ago, Iran has been selling most of its oil to China. I think the figure is around 90% of Iranian oil. In other words, a lot of the oil China uses comes straight from Iran, conveyed there in a fleet of shadow tankers. Iran is also China's preferred diplomatic proxy in the Middle East while it tries to pull the other states there out of the American camp.
So, looking at things in a "Big Picture" way, what the Israeli attack on Iran boils down to is a new round in the Neo-Cold War that is now being waged between China and America. America joining Israel in its attempt to devastate or "regime change" Iran is therefore a direct chess move against China.
But how can China respond?
China simply doesn't have the power projection to take on the USA and its allies (remember them?) in Middle Eastern waters. However, there are also a lot of other options for China to play a strong and decisive counter move. So, what are these?
Well, rather than fight America at an awkward distance, China could remove the conflict to a much more convenient location, i.e. the straits between China and Taiwan.
If America gets involved in a major "regime changing operation" against Iran, China can get involved in a major "reunification operation" with Taiwan. In the same way that Russia responded to the overthrow of its puppet government in Kiev in 2014 by seizing Crimea and parts of the Donbas, China can respond to the overthrow of its ally in Iran by seizing Taiwan, or at least threatening to. The downside here is that such a move would trigger the Japanese, but that might be a manageable cost.
Secondly, another option for China is to support the Iranian government in various ways. This will depend upon how stable the Iranian regime is. If it is reasonably stable, China can change the entire Middle Eastern game simply by ensuring that Iran has a successful A-bomb test within the next couple of weeks or so. It could do this by simply having an A-bomb supplied to Iran, either from Chinese Pakistani or Russian sources.
It could also supply Iran with the weapons it needs to restore its air defences and its offensive capabilities. We saw how effective these were in the recent spat between Pakistan and India, where the former gave the latter a bloody nose.
This kind of support would be a longer term project and would require some sort of stabilisation of the war and a prolonging of the conflict. This is probably why Netanyahu and Trump seem to be in such a rush at the moment.
This kind of support would be a longer term project and would require some sort of stabilisation of the war and a prolonging of the conflict. This is probably why Netanyahu and Trump seem to be in such a rush at the moment.
Up till now, China seems to be mainly offering diplomatic and rhetorical support to Iran, but that is simply the tip of the iceberg. Right now you can be sure that the Chinese leadership is considering every option. Because of this, America would be foolish to jump into Israel's war. Meanwhile, despite its apparent shining success, Israel might well have bitten off a lot more than it can ultimately chew.
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Colin Liddell is the Chief Editor of Neokrat and the author of Interviews & Obituaries, a collection of encounters with the dead and the famous. Support his work by buying his book here (USA), here (UK), and here (Australia), or by taking out a paid subscription on his Substack.
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