NOTE: Girkin is a Russian ultranationalist currently under arrest in Russia. This article was lifted from his Telegram account which remains free.
by Igor Girkin
I regard the probability that we will take Sumy as minimal. The probability that we will come close to them - well, it may be, but no more than that.
As for the evacuation of the civilian population, it would be better, of course, to evacuate them, from the point of view of humanitarian law, since the fighting will be conducted near the city, and there will still be a lot of things flying into the city. But this is already on Zelensky's conscience, if he has it at all. I don't think so.
Now, as for the offensive in the Dnipropetrovsk region. There, the enemy continues to implement his favourite strategy of exchanging territories for a while.
In the direction in which the Russian troops are advancing, there will be no strategic breakthrough. At least, the enemy is not in danger of this. He considers it possible for himself gradually, in battles, very slowly to leave territories that are not of strategic importance for the outcome of the war.
Therefore, unfortunately, once again, all the actions of the Russian troops are predictable, calculated in advance by the enemy, with measures taken to counteract them.
I think that the situation, with a high degree of probability, will be an exact copy of the events of 2024, when the enemy first repelled our offensive in the Kharkiv region and the Donetsk region, for more than two months. And at the end of summer, he launched a brazen counterattack, which ended in a seven-month battle in the Kursk region. There is a high probability that we will see something like this again.
I think that the situation, with a high degree of probability, will be an exact copy of the events of 2024, when the enemy first repelled our offensive in the Kharkiv region and the Donetsk region, for more than two months. And at the end of summer, he launched a brazen counterattack, which ended in a seven-month battle in the Kursk region. There is a high probability that we will see something like this again.
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