No Midterms to worry about.
In the war in the Gulf, it is pretty clear by now that the Trump kakistocracy has no plan beyond pumping out the next bit of slop aligned with its increasingly delusional self-image of Trump as "genius"/"Jesus"/"greatest general"/ whatever (who gives a fuck)!
But just because America has no plan, it would be naïve to assume no one else involved in this does, or that America's lack of a plan is the dominant factor.
Israel clearly has a plan, not much of one, it must be said, as it mainly consists of keeping things on the boil in order to keep Netanyahu out of jail. Much more important are the plans of the chief anti-Western forces, as these are almost certain to be deep, long-term, and profound.
Russia, after its prolonged drubbing at the hands of the Ukrainians, has now fallen into the "back seat" of the Anti-Western forces, and, while benefitting from the Straits of Hormuz being closed and Trump being a Putin fanboy/ Russian asset, is increasingly operating on a day-by-day basis as the cracks in the regime start to widen.
Israel clearly has a plan, not much of one, it must be said, as it mainly consists of keeping things on the boil in order to keep Netanyahu out of jail. Much more important are the plans of the chief anti-Western forces, as these are almost certain to be deep, long-term, and profound.
Russia, after its prolonged drubbing at the hands of the Ukrainians, has now fallen into the "back seat" of the Anti-Western forces, and, while benefitting from the Straits of Hormuz being closed and Trump being a Putin fanboy/ Russian asset, is increasingly operating on a day-by-day basis as the cracks in the regime start to widen.
But what about China? This is now the dominant animus of anti-American/Western globalism, all the more so as they want to replace it with Sino-globalism.
Just to be clear here, whether this is a good or bad thing is not my concern here. I am mainly dealing with the geopolitical pattern that is now unfolding, while attempting to infer intelligently into the gaps. Suffice to say, China has its own problems and interests, but as far as its leaders are concerned, they have been drawn into a rivalry with the West that will dominate their thinking, rather than the imploding demographics that look set to destroy China over the next century or so.
From the perspective of the Chinese leadership, Trump is a golden opportunity to crush the West. While some, like Vlad Vexler, see Trump as an example of a new type of leader that is emerging across the world, the probability is that he is more a temporary aberration and one that may in fact ultimately reinforce the system. Orban's recent demise underlines this point.
Once the "orange shit stain" (as I now refer to him) is expunged by the American democratic process, it is, I think, a reasonable bet that more normal types of people (think Mitt Romney, Al Gore, or even Dick Cheney) will be back in charge in Washington, working once again within the still very potent Western alliance system. Safeguards against repetitions of Trump and his blatant corruption will then most probably be strengthened. Trump, at the end of the day, will not turn out to be the "Western Antichrist," but instead, to quote The Life of Brian, just "a very naughty boy."
More slopulist than populist
This is probably how the Chinese also view him, namely as a temporary glitch in the Western democratic system that opposes them.
But having such a leader at the centre of the West—someone who has zero understanding of, and even less sympathy with, the Western democratic system and is clearly mentally challenged and ingesting his own slop at a toxic rate—is itself an enormous opportunity and one that a deep, long-term, high IQ, and strategic geopolitical rival should not be expected to pass up.
In this context, the Gulf War is a godsend. Not only is America acting alone, but it has behaved essentially in a unjustifiable and "terroristic" manner, unilaterally breaking peace treaties, launching undeclared war, and assassinating the top levels of the leadership of the country that it then asks to sit down with and discuss peace. WTF?!
In the same way that December 7th 1941 handed Roosevelt the moral authority to conduct WWII and launch the Manhattan Project, February 28th 2026 has granted Iran's leadership moral plausibility for using the Straits of Hormuz as a weapon of "self defence," while also helping to justify its quest for an A-bomb.
The only reason that the Straits of Hormuz were ever open in the first place was because of the Anglo-American international system that created "freedom of the seas," the very same "international system" that Trump has spent his first year-and-a-half in office shitting all over.
To allow America to walk away from this mess of its own making would thus be a massive missed opportunity or even a defeat for Xi Jingpin.
Anti-American interests will best be served by either (a) an obvious American defeat that hands Iran some control over the Straits and allows nuclear enrichment to continue, or (b) widening and deepening the conflict.
As we move into May, the Chinese know that we are only half a year from Trump's main pain point, the 2026 Midterm elections. They know this will induce Trump to either take an early loss against Iran, which he will then try to sell to his moron base as a "win," or else provoke him into deepening the war, most notably by committing effective "war crimes" (blowing up non-military power supply, etc) and putting boots on the ground.
As America has no plan to win, no allies to back it up, and no internal consistency (even in the Trump camp) to follow such a course, provoking Trump into such a course of action is the optimum for China.
Not only would America end up redeploying more military assets covering China and deplete already dangerously depleted weapons stocks, it would also lead to an outright military defeat, as US casualties mounted and the pressure to retreat became irresistible.
The only factor that the Anti-Western forces fear would be an uprising by the Iranian people. Most experts, however, judge that that moment was lost weeks before the US attacked Iran, when the last uprising was crushed by Iranian security forces at their leisure, because America's military assets were on the other side of the world in dicking around in Venezuela. Yes, Trump's enormous stupidity and lack of a coherent plan must never be underestimated!
Also, the bombing campaign that America has been engaged in has placed the Iranian regime and its people in the same boat, while hardening the resolve of the regime.
Because of all these factors, expect the Chino-Iranians to keep this conflict alive and to bait Trump into escalating it. They would be foolish to do otherwise. Meanwhile America's moronic President is being pushed in a great puddle of his own slop and bullshit into the corner of the Midterms.
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Colin Liddell is the Chief Editor of Neokrat and the author of Interviews & Obituaries, a collection of encounters with the dead and the famous. Support his work by buying his book here (USA), here (UK), and here (Australia), or by taking out a paid subscription on his Substack.
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