Everywhere we are hearing about the "peace-making acumen" of Donald Trump over the Gaza "peace deal" that has apparently been cooked up. Added to this is an additional narrative that claims Trump got this deal because he didn't listen to the experts, implying a unique genius.
Well, I'm not a sucker and I'm not buying this.
The second narrative about Trump ignoring the experts is just 'up-code' for Trump being a bumbling, stupid idiot who couldn't even place Gaza on a map of the Middle East. So, we are effectively being told that Trump pulled off a peace deal because he is so stupid. Believe that if you want. I won't be joining you.
The facts are more simple and essentially amount to this:
When Camp David happened in 1978 Jimmy Carter was there to pick up the credit. But basically it happened because Israel and Egypt had grown jaded and weary of the Nasserite hysteria and constant state of Israeli tension of the 50s, 60s, and 70s. Now, a Camp David in 1968 might have been something to boast about, but by 1978 it was just closing the empty kennel door on the long lost dogs of war.
Then in 1983, the flowers of Mid-East peace sprouted again. This time with Israel agreeing to pull out of Lebanon. The US incumbent at the time, Ronald Raegan, was again predictably given the credit. Sadly that didn't last too long, and the Lebanon-Israel border turned into the world's longest-running shitshow.
The difference between these two random outbreaks of peace is that massive bribing of Egypt and Israel to adhere to Camp David, sustained by all subsequent US governments, managed to make it work, whereas the May 17 Agreement was reliant on the non-existent commodity of goodwill in the Middle East and soon fell apart.
Fast forward to 1995 and you have Bill Clinton picking up the acclaim for the so-called Oslo accords. Why? Simply because he was President of the biggest country most involved with the Middle East at the time.
But if Clinton was tugging the chains of the Israelis and Palestinians, who was tugging his chain? The fact is that Oslo was the bare minimum that Israel and the US had to give away to placate the approximately 95% of the World that thought it was high time to set the Palestinians up with some kind of state, even if it was just local government.
Also, it didn't solve anything.
This is the pattern of Middle Eastern peace. It happens every now and then not because of the "diplomatic genius" (LOL) of some geopolitically illiterate American Prez, but often despite it.
The present peace in Gaza has all the characteristics of a peace of exhaustion that owes absolutely zero to the Orange Buffoon in the White house.
This is happening essentially because Israel can't bomb and starve Gaza anymore than it has already done. Every building of any note has already ben reduced to a sea of rubble, while Israel's starvation strategy has pushed over half of the territory's population to the brink of the abyss, and if continued would soon lead to a mass "die off" of half of Gaza's population, which is simply not acceptable to large constituencies in the West and even America. Some Israelis might get upset about it!
Even a jellyfish washed up on the beach could get a transient and rather meaningless "peace deal" under these condition. Trump's only skill here is his usual one of opening his big, fat mouth and claiming credit for anything good that happens, something we are all tediously familiar with.
Meanwhile one is reminded of the words that the Roman historian Tacitus put into the mouth of the Caledonian chieftain Calgacus:
Well, I'm not a sucker and I'm not buying this.
The second narrative about Trump ignoring the experts is just 'up-code' for Trump being a bumbling, stupid idiot who couldn't even place Gaza on a map of the Middle East. So, we are effectively being told that Trump pulled off a peace deal because he is so stupid. Believe that if you want. I won't be joining you.
The facts are more simple and essentially amount to this:
- The USA is the main global power and is also the main global power deeply involved in the Middle East.
- Whatever happens in the Middle East, good, bad, or indifferent, inevitably ends up being attributed in some way to the US administration, whether or not it is the cause.
- The current US administration just happens to be that of Donald Trump.
When Camp David happened in 1978 Jimmy Carter was there to pick up the credit. But basically it happened because Israel and Egypt had grown jaded and weary of the Nasserite hysteria and constant state of Israeli tension of the 50s, 60s, and 70s. Now, a Camp David in 1968 might have been something to boast about, but by 1978 it was just closing the empty kennel door on the long lost dogs of war.
Then in 1983, the flowers of Mid-East peace sprouted again. This time with Israel agreeing to pull out of Lebanon. The US incumbent at the time, Ronald Raegan, was again predictably given the credit. Sadly that didn't last too long, and the Lebanon-Israel border turned into the world's longest-running shitshow.
The difference between these two random outbreaks of peace is that massive bribing of Egypt and Israel to adhere to Camp David, sustained by all subsequent US governments, managed to make it work, whereas the May 17 Agreement was reliant on the non-existent commodity of goodwill in the Middle East and soon fell apart.
Fast forward to 1995 and you have Bill Clinton picking up the acclaim for the so-called Oslo accords. Why? Simply because he was President of the biggest country most involved with the Middle East at the time.
But if Clinton was tugging the chains of the Israelis and Palestinians, who was tugging his chain? The fact is that Oslo was the bare minimum that Israel and the US had to give away to placate the approximately 95% of the World that thought it was high time to set the Palestinians up with some kind of state, even if it was just local government.
Also, it didn't solve anything.
This is the pattern of Middle Eastern peace. It happens every now and then not because of the "diplomatic genius" (LOL) of some geopolitically illiterate American Prez, but often despite it.
The present peace in Gaza has all the characteristics of a peace of exhaustion that owes absolutely zero to the Orange Buffoon in the White house.
This is happening essentially because Israel can't bomb and starve Gaza anymore than it has already done. Every building of any note has already ben reduced to a sea of rubble, while Israel's starvation strategy has pushed over half of the territory's population to the brink of the abyss, and if continued would soon lead to a mass "die off" of half of Gaza's population, which is simply not acceptable to large constituencies in the West and even America. Some Israelis might get upset about it!
Even a jellyfish washed up on the beach could get a transient and rather meaningless "peace deal" under these condition. Trump's only skill here is his usual one of opening his big, fat mouth and claiming credit for anything good that happens, something we are all tediously familiar with.
Meanwhile one is reminded of the words that the Roman historian Tacitus put into the mouth of the Caledonian chieftain Calgacus:
"They make a desert and they call it peace."
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