Peace is the continuation of war by other means, as Clausewitz might have said.
Anyone taking this Gaza peace deal at all seriously has clearly not looked at the details of the deal and has a net negative understanding of the Middle East. So, can we all stop pretending that Donald Trump is some genius peace deal maker.
Anyone taking this Gaza peace deal at all seriously has clearly not looked at the details of the deal and has a net negative understanding of the Middle East. So, can we all stop pretending that Donald Trump is some genius peace deal maker.
The first stage -- basically stop genociding the Palestinians, releasing 2000 randomly arrested "Hamas terrorists," and returning a few living Israeli hostages and body parts, is the easy part.
This leaves the Israeli's in charge of a depopulated part of Gaza (in yellow on the map), meanwhile a minimum of 600 trucks per day are bring in food, water, medicine, tents, and equipment for rubble removal, etc. without interference from Israel. Meanwhile attempts will be mad to re-establish hospitals, bakeries, and basic water, electricity, and sewage systems.
This leaves the Israeli's in charge of a depopulated part of Gaza (in yellow on the map), meanwhile a minimum of 600 trucks per day are bring in food, water, medicine, tents, and equipment for rubble removal, etc. without interference from Israel. Meanwhile attempts will be mad to re-establish hospitals, bakeries, and basic water, electricity, and sewage systems.
After the big sugar rush of humanitarian joy this brings, however, things get very shitty very quickly.
The next part of the deal is the "Hamas Disarmament and Amnesty" part. Hamas are expected to decommission their weapons and commit to peaceful coexistence, with Gaza being declared a "de-radicalized, terror-free zone" posing no threat to neighbours.
The next part of the deal is the "Hamas Disarmament and Amnesty" part. Hamas are expected to decommission their weapons and commit to peaceful coexistence, with Gaza being declared a "de-radicalized, terror-free zone" posing no threat to neighbours.
On paper is one thing, in reality is quite another, but here the two sides are not even in alignment on paper, with Israel insisting on "full demilitarization," while Hamas seeks "guarantees against re-occupation." Also, how does full demilitarization even happen without an occupying force to back it up and impose it?
It simply isn't going to happen, while among the 600 or more trucks a day bringing stuff into Gaza at least one or two of them are going to be bringing in weapons.
It simply isn't going to happen, while among the 600 or more trucks a day bringing stuff into Gaza at least one or two of them are going to be bringing in weapons.
Then there is the "Governance and Transitional Authority" part of the plan, which stipulates temporary rule by a "technocratic, apolitical Palestinian committee of qualified locals and international experts" with "oversight" by a "Board of Peace" chaired by Trump and including figures like former UK PM Tony Blair.
Yeh, oversight. What do they do when they see something they don't like?
The answer is fuck all. All its monitoring is non-invasive and relies on cooperation from Hamas. Observers cannot even enter Hamas-controlled areas without prior consent. When push comes to shove, the Board of Peace will be able to recommend targeted sanctions (e.g., financial freezes, travel bans, etc.) on Hamas leaders and suspend aid flows temporarily. Effectively toothless.
The answer is fuck all. All its monitoring is non-invasive and relies on cooperation from Hamas. Observers cannot even enter Hamas-controlled areas without prior consent. When push comes to shove, the Board of Peace will be able to recommend targeted sanctions (e.g., financial freezes, travel bans, etc.) on Hamas leaders and suspend aid flows temporarily. Effectively toothless.
Hamas will probably play nice for a bit in order to rebuild their "human infrastructure," i.e. the physical wellbeing of the young angry population of Gaza (the ever fertile soil for their seed) and hang on until full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza by December 31. After that Hamas will resume full control and start being Hamas again, while in response Israel will continue its favourite tactic of occasional strikes on whoever their intelligence tells them is running Gaza. Hamas will then lauch attacks as usual in "retaliation."
Phase three of the peace deal, namely international funding for Gaza redevelopment (the "Trump Riviera" concept), and the "pathway to Palestinian self-determination/statehood" are unlikely to materialise, and my guess is that both Hamas and Israel kind of like it that way.
The world meanwhile will continue to send in billions in aid to keep the most crappy geopolitical bum-fight in existence going.
Phase three of the peace deal, namely international funding for Gaza redevelopment (the "Trump Riviera" concept), and the "pathway to Palestinian self-determination/statehood" are unlikely to materialise, and my guess is that both Hamas and Israel kind of like it that way.
The world meanwhile will continue to send in billions in aid to keep the most crappy geopolitical bum-fight in existence going.
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Colin Liddell is the Chief Editor of Neokrat and the author of Interviews & Obituaries, a collection of encounters with the dead and the famous. Support his work by buying his book here (USA), here (UK), and here (Australia), or by taking out a paid subscription on his Substack.
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