Doomster fire!
by Daniel Barge
Reform UK, the party of Nigel Farage, has overtaken the Conservative Party in a YouGov poll for the first time since the election began.
As reported by YouGov:
As reported by YouGov:
"That day has finally arrived. The latest YouGov voting intention survey, conducted 12-13 June, has Reform UK one point ahead of the Conservatives on 19% to 18%. While numerically ahead, it is worth keeping sight of the fact that these figures are well within the margin of error of one another – we will not be able to tell for some time whether Reform can sustain or improve their position relative to the Conservatives."
Both parties are still well behind the Labour Party, at 38%, with the LibDems on 15%.
However, due to the peculiarities' of the UK electoral system, this level of support, if repeated on election day, would result in only a handful of parliamentary seats for Reform, with the Tories remaining the main opposition.It is also highly unlikely -- although not impossible -- that Reform can maintain this level of support. As they rise in the polls, the UK's establishment will subject them to increasing attacks. Recently it was revealed that 41 Reform UK candidates were "linked" in some way to an actual fascist on Facebook.
Bedroom Mussolini and Reform UK "bestie" Raikes
"Close to one in ten candidates for the Reform UK party in England was found to be connected on Facebook with Gary Raikes, the British fascist leader, The Times found.
On Thursday Farage claimed it was 'utter cobblers' to say they had Nazi sympathies because 'on Facebook mates send each other things' without “having any idea where it comes from”. During a phone-in segment on an LBC radio show, he said: 'I can only apologise that not all of our candidates have been to Eton, to Oxford, not all of our candidates are part of the London set.'
Raikes, a former organiser for the British National Party, founded the New British Union in the image of Oswald Mosley’s British Union of Fascists, and has called for a 'fascist revolution' that would see parliamentary democracy replaced with a dictatorship."
Although this is no longer the political death sentence it once was, it is still not a good look for a party aiming to become the "official opposition"
In the remaining weeks of the election, expect to see the Reform UK vote collapse and swing to the Tories. If this does not happen we will probably even see calls by Labour and LibDem leaders to vote Tory in certain seats where Reform is threatening to make a breakthrough.
Exactly the same tactics were successful in keeping the Front National out of power in France for several decades, and the UK's political culture is roughly about where France's was in the 1990s.
I am more inclined to predict that Reform’s vote will grow between now and election day, assisted by the Tories abysmal campaigning.
ReplyDeleteI very much doubt there’s going to be a last minute surge back to the Tories and the electoral outcome is likely apocalyptic for Tories with or without Reform’s involvement. All the evidence from bi-elections suggests that Tory voters will simply stay at home rather than vote for the Conservative candidate. Reform will energise those (small c) conservative voters although it might not translate to a positive national result for the Right due to FPTP.
How a strong performance from Reform will translate to the composition of the Commons is anyone’s guess such are the peculiarities of our FPTP system.
I also predict that Labour’s vote share will be in the mid 30s nationally, possibly still enough for a large majority as we saw in 2005 when they actually lost the popular vote in England but won 100 more English seats than the Tories.
I'm not seeing this so-called "abysmal campaign" that so many are speaking off. What I'm seeing is a kind of seething, irrational unpopularity, based on the increasing hysteria, emotional incontinence, and negativity of the voters. We are becoming a Third World nation of groundless, extreme mood swings. Yes, the Tories have got several things wrong in government, but the choices the voters are making are towards more of the worst aspects of that by voting Labour, or by simply throwing their votes away in our FPTP system. My home constituency back in Scotland is a toss up between two almost equally unacceptable options - SNP and Labour - and I can't vote for Reform as there are too many red flags around the Farage gang, so I will probably vote SDP if they are on the ballot. A wasted vote in a clearly dysfunctional democracy. Overall I think the Tories will "bounce back" to win over a 100 seats and remain the "opposition" in a very lopsided and weird parliament. Reform will possibly get one or two seats.
DeleteThe problem the Tories have is credibility. They could match all of Reform’s immigration pledges but who would believe them?
DeleteBut on the other side, Reform are extremely unlikely to make any significant breakthrough. The optimum solution would have been for Reform to have existed as enough of a threat to keep a Tory government heading in the right direction, without undermining them to the point of losing power or going into a semi-collapse, as they are now. Smells of Kremlin.
DeleteAnyway, Britain is stuck with mass immigration and multiculturalism by "structural" factors that are immune to the petty vacillations of electoral politics. See my article THE ONLY LEGITIMATE IMMIGRATION DEBATES. Talking about rearranging the deckchairs is fun however.