The drip-drip-drip release of the Epstein Files, combined with Trump's dipping approval ratings, and electoral set-backs for his party, increases the pressure on the President to find a big messy distraction, like a war.
Although there might be perfectly good realpolitik reasons for "offing" Maduro -- and risks -- the main utility of such a conflict for Trump now is that it might just temporarily get people to forget about his very close connection with paedophile Jeffrey Epstein. So, with the "Epstein Files" trending again, the chances of war may seem to be increasing.
But just how popular (or unpopular) would such a war be?
Sadly for Trump (and Marco Rubio, who is pushing hard for the war) Americans are very unenthusiastic about anything that pulls them out of Costco or their favourite shopping mall for a few minutes.
A YouGov poll conducted 5th-8th September put support for US invasion of Venezuela at only 16% with 62% opposed. Even among Republicans, only 31% support the idea and that's probably because they assume it will be a walkover.
If the question is the use of "limited force to overthrow Maduro" support only climbs two points to 18% with 46% opposed and 36% don't know.
Yes, a few air sorties and special ops producing a major low-cost geopolitical victory for the United States can only produce less than 1-in-5 support! This is the problem with America being an "empire," it has the most unimperial people. Mentally and culturally most Americans are still fighting against the "evil tyranny" of King George III who dared to impose a piffling tea tax on them.
The highest level of support the Neocon hawk party can get is 27%, but that is only for strikes on drug boats in international waters. This is also opposed by 42% of Americans, some of whom are probably peeved by having their drug imports interdicted by "patriots" the same way tea drinkers in New England must have been pissed at the Boston Tea Party in 1773.
So, based on these numbers, which will be percolating through every level of the Republican Party, I would say that the likelihood of a US attack on Venezuela remains low.
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Colin Liddell is the Chief Editor of Neokrat and the author of Interviews & Obituaries, a collection of encounters with the dead and the famous. Support his work by buying his book here (USA), here (UK), and here (Australia), or by taking out a paid subscription on his Substack.
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