The main role of predictions is not to predict the future, which tends to be practically impossible, but instead to perceive the present and sketch out some looming possibilities. With that understood -- and not too much credibility on the line -- let us proceed.
In the UK, the future looks pretty cut-and-dried. Nigel Farage's Reform UK Party has what looks like an insurmountable lead in the polls and looks certain to become Prime Minister in a few years time...but (or rather several buts).
Farage and Reform UK have their own organic base, essentially normal Brits pissed off with the many failings caused by liberal multiculturalism. But it is also clear that they are benefitting from international factors, especially the impact of Kremlin ops on the UK and the high water mark of Trumpism in the USA.
The thing is that both of these factors are highly volatile and unstable. The recent elections in the US, in which the Dems trounced the Republicans in New York and a couple of states, exposed the limitations of Trumpism. It's a good bet that Trump will now increasingly look like a badly-aging lame duck; and without Trump, Trumpism simply won't work.
There is no one who can take over the mantle -- Vance has zero charisma and lacks likeability, as do Trump's kids. We are likely to see something like a Cruz or a Rubio move up as a replacement. That might still be good enough to keep the Dems in check, but if it doesn't, the whole MAGA project is likely to splinter and collapse, to be replaced by a triumphant Democrat reaction that will probably jail a fair number of MAGA people (Trump himself, Bannon, Stephen Miller, etc).
At the very least, MAGA is going to be a lot weaker going forward. Likewise with Russia. The long-expected Russian collapse may never happen, but there is a growing chance that it could, and may even be only a few weeks away! Suffice to say that if and when it happens, no one will be the least bit surprised that it did.
With a diminished or discredited MAGA and a collapsing Kremlin, Farage's prospects will of course dim, but there is still enough raw resentment and cynicism aimed at the old parties for Reform to pull it off. Much will therefore depend on how the establishment attacks Farage and how dirty they are prepared to get.
Much will also depend on whether the Tories can mimic Reform talking points enough to (a) completely steal their thunder and unite Right-wing voters into a landslide victory, or (b) divide the right-wing vote enough to give Labour another chance.
Much will also depend on whether the Tories can mimic Reform talking points enough to (a) completely steal their thunder and unite Right-wing voters into a landslide victory, or (b) divide the right-wing vote enough to give Labour another chance.
Key to this will be whether "they" can get rid of Kemi Badenoch as Tory leader, as having a Nigerian anchor baby as leader of a rightward-moving, tough-on-immigration Tory Party is simply a non-starter. But even if Badenoch can be ousted, it is clear that the Tories will still struggle to find the right leader who can unite their party around a platform attractive to the 30-35% of voters who are currently leaning to Reform. At the moment, Robert Jenrick looks like the most likely Badenoch successor, although he remains somewhat charisma-deficient.
Then, assuming Reform, or a Reform-channelling Tory Party, win, it is not at all clear what will happen. Presumably whichever one succeeds will scrap the European Court of Human Rights and start making Britain a lot less attractive to illegal migrants. That would be something. However, due to the UK's lower-than-replacement fertility rate, pressure will remain to continue mass immigration at least at the level needed to counter that.
But the other problem the UK has is the so-called Left-leaning Celtic fringe. If English voters put in a "hard Right" or "harder Right" party, then that will increase the pressure for Scotland and Wales to break away, which could get messy pretty fast. It may sound odd to say this, but the Labour Party is the de facto "Unionist Party" in the present day. And this is no minor point, as the UK simply wouldn't work without Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland, reducing England to petty state.
But we also live in fast-changing times, so there is also a reasonable possibility that politics could be swept aside by technology.
Developments in crypto, AI, and robots are moving along at a tremendous pace, although most of this seems to be happening in the US and China. However, a Britain in which self-driving vehicles are ubiquitous won't need so many Third World Deliveroo men; and there is even the possibility that within a decade Third-world-sourced NHS nurses and home helps will be facing stiff competition from AI-driven robots.
As I keep hearing myself saying recently, "What a time to be alive!"
Developments in crypto, AI, and robots are moving along at a tremendous pace, although most of this seems to be happening in the US and China. However, a Britain in which self-driving vehicles are ubiquitous won't need so many Third World Deliveroo men; and there is even the possibility that within a decade Third-world-sourced NHS nurses and home helps will be facing stiff competition from AI-driven robots.
As I keep hearing myself saying recently, "What a time to be alive!"
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Colin Liddell is the Chief Editor of Neokrat and the author of Interviews & Obituaries, a collection of encounters with the dead and the famous. Support his work by buying his book here (USA), here (UK), and here (Australia), or by taking out a paid subscription on his Substack.
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