In politically complex, racially diverse, over-opinionated, highly porous societies like those in Western nations, contentious points, like the pros and cons of vaxxing, often get lost in the weeds and the memes.
This is why it is important to look at the same issues is “cleaner” (in data terms) but just as advanced societies, like Japan. Looking at the vax issue through the lens of Japan especially is revealing.
When the Covid virus hit the planet backn in 2019/2020, it was noticeable that Japan was somewhat at a disadvantage. By 8th of April 2021, it had only vaxed just over 1% of its population. By the same date, the UK has vaccinated 56% of its population, the USA 52%, France 19%, and China 11%. Even India had vaccinated nearly 7% of its vast and impoverished population.
Furthermore, Japan, despite being one of the most technologically developed nations on Earth, had to rely exclusively on foreign supplies, getting most of its vax from US pharmaceutical giant Pfizer. The obvious question was:
"Why isn't Japan's high-tech medical sector just churning out its own vaccine supplies?"
The reasons are several, but mainly this was due to a lack of political will. What little political will exists in Japan tends to come from the big corporations that finance the politicians, and Japan's medical sector has long been somewhat ambivalent about vaccines.
One problem is too much protection of inefficient Japanese companies in order to maintain employment levels. Japan's med sector is old-fashioned and inefficient, with too many small companies insulated from that nasty thing called "competition" while also being supported by various government subsidies.
This cosy arrangement also means that these companies are often too small and unwilling to take big bets on Research and Development. Elsewhere in the world, rampant competition has created massive companies that can take big bets on R&D. This has led to four massive pharmaceutical giants dominating 70% of the global market for vaccines.
But the much more interesting reason for Japan’s inherent anti-vaxness concerns the fact that by the 1990s, Japanese mothers were having babies later and later.
In the past the Japanese government used to take the lead in pushing vaccines, but something happened in the 1990s that changed all this — a whole series of lawsuits against the supposed “evil effects” of MMR (measles, mumps and rubella) vaccines.
In 2003, the government and a research centre affiliated with Osaka University were forced to pay a total of 155 million yen to the families of two children who died or suffered side effects after receiving the MMR vaccine.
As reported at the time:
Thousands more sued the government, mainly for cases of autism, although such cases continued to rise even after Japanese-made vaccines were withdrawn. In fact, autism has never been higher in Japan. So, how high is it?
The number of children with autism in Japan is estimated to be around one in 55, or 604.72 per 100,000 children. This is nearly double the rate of many other countries, including China and the United Kingdom, and nearly as high as The United States (one in 44). My guess is that Japan is actually higher than the US, but due to cultural norms and family shame much of this is hidden or covered up.
So, if dialling back on vaxes didn’t stop Japan’s autism epidemic dead in its tracks, what was the real cause?
My guess is that, just as in the West, the increasing age at which mothers were having children played a considerable role. According to data cited by Psychology Today Autism diagnoses in Japan have shown a clear increase from 2000 to the present, paralleling global trends. This also parallels the increasing age of mothers, with researchers increasingly noted this as a factor influencing autism spectrum disorder (ASD) prevalence. As maternal (and paternal) age increases, so does the risk of developmental conditions like autism.
2002 studies estimated Japan's autism prevalence at around 1 in 500 children. By 2012, the prevalence increased to 1 in 88 children, and recent reports put it at 1 in 55. Not all this can be put down to “improved diagnostic practices.” Autism is real and is increasing, as is late motherhood.
This cosy arrangement also means that these companies are often too small and unwilling to take big bets on Research and Development. Elsewhere in the world, rampant competition has created massive companies that can take big bets on R&D. This has led to four massive pharmaceutical giants dominating 70% of the global market for vaccines.
But the much more interesting reason for Japan’s inherent anti-vaxness concerns the fact that by the 1990s, Japanese mothers were having babies later and later.
In the past the Japanese government used to take the lead in pushing vaccines, but something happened in the 1990s that changed all this — a whole series of lawsuits against the supposed “evil effects” of MMR (measles, mumps and rubella) vaccines.
In 2003, the government and a research centre affiliated with Osaka University were forced to pay a total of 155 million yen to the families of two children who died or suffered side effects after receiving the MMR vaccine.
As reported at the time:
"The court ruled that the death of the son of a couple in Suita, Osaka Prefecture, and the serious brain damage suffered by 13-year-old Hana Ueno, from Hanamaki, Iwate Prefecture, were caused by the MMR vaccine. It ruled, however, that the child of a couple in Hyogo Prefecture died after contracting influenza."
Thousands more sued the government, mainly for cases of autism, although such cases continued to rise even after Japanese-made vaccines were withdrawn. In fact, autism has never been higher in Japan. So, how high is it?
The number of children with autism in Japan is estimated to be around one in 55, or 604.72 per 100,000 children. This is nearly double the rate of many other countries, including China and the United Kingdom, and nearly as high as The United States (one in 44). My guess is that Japan is actually higher than the US, but due to cultural norms and family shame much of this is hidden or covered up.
So, if dialling back on vaxes didn’t stop Japan’s autism epidemic dead in its tracks, what was the real cause?
My guess is that, just as in the West, the increasing age at which mothers were having children played a considerable role. According to data cited by Psychology Today Autism diagnoses in Japan have shown a clear increase from 2000 to the present, paralleling global trends. This also parallels the increasing age of mothers, with researchers increasingly noted this as a factor influencing autism spectrum disorder (ASD) prevalence. As maternal (and paternal) age increases, so does the risk of developmental conditions like autism.
2002 studies estimated Japan's autism prevalence at around 1 in 500 children. By 2012, the prevalence increased to 1 in 88 children, and recent reports put it at 1 in 55. Not all this can be put down to “improved diagnostic practices.” Autism is real and is increasing, as is late motherhood.
Anti-vax sentiment, both in Japan and the West, is generated by the same factor, namely a willingness to find an external scapegoat to blame in order to exonerate the individuals concerned, who in many cases have delayed having children too long. The main difference is that in Japan this correlation is a lot clearer.
Being anti-vax is thus revealed to be merely simping for women who have kids too late. Now, why would anybody want to do that?
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Colin Liddell is the Chief Editor of Neokrat and the author of Interviews & Obituaries, a collection of encounters with the dead and the famous. As there is absolutely zero reward for honest content like this, support his work by buying his book here (USA), here (UK), and here (Australia). or by taking out a paid subscription on his Substack.
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