Wrecking balls vs game-playing meatballs
I've got a simple analogy for you. It is this: Putin is Trump and Ron DeSantis is Xi Jinping.
All these guys are ambitious and want to succeed, and, of course, they have succeeded to various degrees, but there is a difference. Two of these guys are wrecking balls who want to throw the game board up in the air to get what they want, while the other two want to hunker down and play the game until they win.
No prizes for guessing who is which.
No prizes for guessing who is which.
Not so long ago, Putin was on the side of the game players -- a careful, calculating guy who was slowly but surely pushing his nation up the global rankings. Then, last year, he suddenly flipped and became a mad gambler. One is reminded of why Hitler supposedly started WWII when he did: he felt he had limited time and that his health might let him down, and that only he could do what needed to be done to ensure the long-term security of Germany. Of course, in the process, he got most of the cities of Germany destroyed and most of its women raped.
Trump too is clearly a wrecking ball. Back in 2015-16, he started out as one, which was his whole appeal, but once in government, he showed signs of trying to play the game the way the swamp wanted. It was only when he was unceremoniously dumped out of power by the, ahem, "fortified election," that he turned back into the J6/QAnon wrecking ball that he seems to be now.
These two guys contrast sharply with Xi and DeSantis.
Recently Xi visited Moscow in a much trumpeted diplomatic coup for Putin, but it was all smoke and mirrors. There was little substance. Yes, Xi was interested in boosting Russia as a resource colony of China, but not so interested in supplying weapons and tech to help "dear friend" Putin win.
This is because Xi is crafty and knows that Putin is a bad bet thanks to the weaker-than-expected Russian military. Giving him weapons and tech would have major negative consequences for China, which would immediately face brutal sanctions. Also, if he went that extra mile for his "multipolar buddy" and Putin came out on top, Putin would be the winner, not Xi, who also probably finds some merit in the idea of a weakened Russia totally dependent on China, no matter who's in charge.
Recently Xi visited Moscow in a much trumpeted diplomatic coup for Putin, but it was all smoke and mirrors. There was little substance. Yes, Xi was interested in boosting Russia as a resource colony of China, but not so interested in supplying weapons and tech to help "dear friend" Putin win.
This is because Xi is crafty and knows that Putin is a bad bet thanks to the weaker-than-expected Russian military. Giving him weapons and tech would have major negative consequences for China, which would immediately face brutal sanctions. Also, if he went that extra mile for his "multipolar buddy" and Putin came out on top, Putin would be the winner, not Xi, who also probably finds some merit in the idea of a weakened Russia totally dependent on China, no matter who's in charge.
There is rather a similar relationship between DeSantis and Trump. They are both technically on the same team -- GOP populists -- and the degree to which DeSantis steals, or attempts to steal, Trump's thunder has become something of a meme:
But DeSantis is not interested in throwing the game board up in the air, like Trump. He is much more like Xi. He wants to sit down and keep making the right weaselly moves to bolster his power and to jockey for position. Right now this means playing to the same dumb "America First," isolationist populist base as Trump, while also signalling to the Establishment and the US Deep State that he understands their concerns and the wider needs of the American Empire and the global system it underpins.
In a recent interview he even channelled the ghost of Senator John McCain:
"I think [Putin]’s got grand ambitions. I think he’s hostile to the US, but... he’s basically a gas station with a bunch of nuclear weapons."
Both Xi and DeSantis want more power and they mean to get it, but they mean to get it by "playing the game," not throwing the game board up in the air.
This doesn't mean they'll succeed, or that they even respect the game in any meaningful way. But it means that they'll minimise their risks and maximise their own modest talents by adopting this strategy. That's not always a bad formula for going a long way in politics.
What Putin and Trump are doing is a lot more interesting, but bright burning flames often burn out a lot sooner.
This doesn't mean they'll succeed, or that they even respect the game in any meaningful way. But it means that they'll minimise their risks and maximise their own modest talents by adopting this strategy. That's not always a bad formula for going a long way in politics.
What Putin and Trump are doing is a lot more interesting, but bright burning flames often burn out a lot sooner.
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