by Vlad Vexler
All things being equal, which in politics they never are, Trump would prefer Putin to win the war.
Trump has not suddenly pivoted toward Russia. The restrictions on Ukraine’s satellite access, the diesel deal with Putin, the proposal to unfreeze Russia’s sovereign assets, the reports of intel being held back from Ukraine, and Trump’s call for Zelensky to be removed represent a disinhibition of Trump’s underlying preference for Putin.
I will keep these notes brief. I just want to give you two noes and seven yeses to convey where we are, and how screwed we are.
1. Trump’s behaviour has become outrageously pro-Kremlin. Is this because Putin has finally threatened to leak whatever he has on Trump?
No. Russia experts know that Putin is confused and alarmed by Trump’s unpredictability, and nobody in the Kremlin behaves like they hold hidden leverage over Trump. The leverage they have is out in the open. First, it’s ideological - Trump and Putin share a monarchist, hyper-neoliberal (might is right) and fascisised worldview. Second, Trump is dependent on Putin as his main source of narcissistic supply among world leaders. It’s no wonder Trump wants Russia to win.
2. Is Trump suddenly looking for Russian hacking / information warfare to help in the midterms?
No. Trump doesn’t take the efficacy of Russian interference seriously. Meanwhile, it would be out of character for Putin to offer Trump such assistance directly. I’m not deeply worried about a new Trump-Putin arrangement of this kind. For more, see my recent discussion on Russian interference here.
3. Is Trump trying to make Zelensky the scapegoat for his own failures?
Yes. Trump is looking for others to blame for his lamentable predicament at home and in the Middle East. Zelensky is now emerging as his main scapegoat. The logic is ludicrous: Ukraine is being blamed for difficulties produced by Trump’s aimless and reckless war in Iran.
4. Could Trump’s scapegoating escalate further?
Yes. Trump could intensify his attacks on Ukraine - and it is reasonable to think that the scapegoating extends to Europe and Canada next.
5. Does Trump want Putin to succeed as an end in itself?
Yes. Trump’s primary motivation is to help himself. But he also loves the idea of helping Putin. Trump’s fantasy is that the two men belong to a magical society of strongmen. We should be willing to confront the disturbing reality that helping Putin is also an end in itself for Trump.
6. Are we underestimating how far Trump could go?
Yes. We need to recalibrate our expectations. We tend to think that Trump’s destructiveness peaks at whichever point we happen to be. Unfortunately, this is a status quo prejudice, fuelled by the fantasy that Trump is an aberration. A reasonable starting point is that we may have seen only half of what Trump could do before the end of his term.
7. Does Trump have a distorted view of his diesel deal with Moscow?
Yes. This is post-truth action. Trump is attracted to the image of the deal, not to its actual consequences. He values the announcement more than the substance, and he gets narcissistic supply from the very idea of making a deal with Putin.
8. Is Trump attracted to the idea of an alliance with Russia beyond the Russo-Ukrainian war?
Yes. Trump thinks of this in hyper-neoliberal rather than strategic terms. He sees the prospect of lucrative opportunities for his entourage. This is not because Russia and the USA don’t matter. Rather, they matter insofar as they serve as vehicles for the strongest to enrich themselves.
9. Has Trump come to see an alliance with Russia as more advantageous than he did in 2024?
Yes. Trump has developed an increasingly exaggerated view of the benefits of doing business with Russia. His helplessness and frustration over the war in Iran has contributed to this.
Now a final remark on Europe, which has so far taken a spectatorial stance - as the self-immolation of the US empire continues apace. European leaders remain dazed, reluctant to act boldly, and in denial about the realities of decoupling from the US.
For my guide on how European leaders should conduct themselves, watch this.
From Vlad Vexler's Substack
From Vlad Vexler's Substack
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