Last night, the Russian President Vladimir Putin basically did this:
Don't think he got as many "yeses" as Goebbels.
For the first time since his disastrous war with the Ukraine started, Putin has crossed the line into forced mobilisation of Russian reservists. The "brilliant idea" to hold referendums in occupied territory is commented upon in the image at the top of this article.
My take on Putin's Goebbellian "total war" moment is that this was an entirely predictable event given the following well-known factors:
For the first time since his disastrous war with the Ukraine started, Putin has crossed the line into forced mobilisation of Russian reservists. The "brilliant idea" to hold referendums in occupied territory is commented upon in the image at the top of this article.
My take on Putin's Goebbellian "total war" moment is that this was an entirely predictable event given the following well-known factors:
(1) the substandard nature of the Russian military
(2) Russia's half-baked approach to the war (i.e. low social cost on average Russians)
(3) effective Western support for Ukrainian army
(4) the high cost of "strongman" failure in Russia
Interestingly, the emphasis on preventing the war impacting too hard on normal Russians is an eerie echo of the Third Reich. Even in the middle of WWII, Hitler was careful to ensure that ordinary Germans were as protected as much as possible from the negative effects of the war. This was the whole point of Goebbels's "Total War Speech," which only came in February 1943, when the war was almost two-thirds of the way through. It marked the change to the full mobilisation of German society at last!
Thie importance placed on the comfort of the home front was because Hitler, like Putin, saw the home front as inherently fragile. He remembered how WWI ended with strikes and mutinies that occurred well behind the front lines. Now, Putin, thanks to Russian failure to make headway and recent Ukrainian victories, is desperate and is being forced to put more pressure on this weak point, something he clearly never wanted to do.
No matter how surprised or worried some people seem to be by the latest developments and Putin's sabre rattling, you can be sure that this has been completely war-gamed by people in the Western Deep State, and this is probably where they always thought the war would go. In other words, they are quite happy for the war to go in this direction. (By the way, I am using the term "Deep State" in a non-pejorative way, simply to denote tenured experts, etc.)
So, to be clear, getting Putin to place an increasing strain on the fragile Russian home front was always in the Western plan. Why is this the case? Simply because it is safer for Russia's final defeat to come from a blow within than from one outside.
It is clear that NATO could easily overwhelm Russia within weeks simply by sending the Ukrainian army more and better weapons. For example, Ukraine now has about 25 HIMARS systems, which already have made a big difference. However, recently Poland ordered 500! Imagine what a difference those would make if they were deployed to Poland, and that's just one weapons class.
Thie importance placed on the comfort of the home front was because Hitler, like Putin, saw the home front as inherently fragile. He remembered how WWI ended with strikes and mutinies that occurred well behind the front lines. Now, Putin, thanks to Russian failure to make headway and recent Ukrainian victories, is desperate and is being forced to put more pressure on this weak point, something he clearly never wanted to do.
No matter how surprised or worried some people seem to be by the latest developments and Putin's sabre rattling, you can be sure that this has been completely war-gamed by people in the Western Deep State, and this is probably where they always thought the war would go. In other words, they are quite happy for the war to go in this direction. (By the way, I am using the term "Deep State" in a non-pejorative way, simply to denote tenured experts, etc.)
So, to be clear, getting Putin to place an increasing strain on the fragile Russian home front was always in the Western plan. Why is this the case? Simply because it is safer for Russia's final defeat to come from a blow within than from one outside.
It is clear that NATO could easily overwhelm Russia within weeks simply by sending the Ukrainian army more and better weapons. For example, Ukraine now has about 25 HIMARS systems, which already have made a big difference. However, recently Poland ordered 500! Imagine what a difference those would make if they were deployed to Poland, and that's just one weapons class.
But such an "external" way of defeating Russia raises the possibility of a partial use of nuclear weapons. Much better, then, that the decisive blow falls from within Russia itself.
Getting Putin to place pressure on the fragile home front raises the possibility of either of some sort of coup or revolution, either from anti-war masses or pro-war fanatics. Either way chaos and collapse are introduced into the system, and the final blow is internal.
Effectively, we're in a weird kind of poker game now, in which Putin, with a weak hand, is starting to shove in his remaining chips in an attempt to appear strong. The West can always match him and threaten to call his bluff, forcing him to mortgage his house, farm, everything. The end game is to get one of his own to bump him off, or for an uprising to end things. It's not even a problem if someone more "hard line" replaces Putin, as that person will have weak authority and will probably be a transient figure, certainly if he tries to double down on Putin's many mistakes.
It is clear that Putin has been baited and triggered by the West into behaving in this predictable and war-gamed way. He is walking down the pre-planned path of his own destruction. The only thing that could make a difference are the Chinese, who are more cautious and patient in their challenge to the West.
Having Russia on board was always part of their plan, but this more subtle, long-term plan has been thrown off balance by Putin's reckless Ukrainian gamble. Xi must be seriously considering how he can remove Putin from the picture without causing a total collapse in Russia. It's clear by now that Putin simply can't take the nods and hints the Chinese have been sending him.
This is a major structural issue in the geopolitical picture: China is the senior party in "Team Anti-America," but the junior party (Putin) is under the delusion that he is the top guy, or at least "more equal" than Xi.
So, to sum up the basics: Any additional mobilisation Russia does will (a) put more pressure on Russia's fragile home front and (b) have no substantial effect on the war. Therefore, all it does is put pressure on Russia's fragile home front.
Effectively, we're in a weird kind of poker game now, in which Putin, with a weak hand, is starting to shove in his remaining chips in an attempt to appear strong. The West can always match him and threaten to call his bluff, forcing him to mortgage his house, farm, everything. The end game is to get one of his own to bump him off, or for an uprising to end things. It's not even a problem if someone more "hard line" replaces Putin, as that person will have weak authority and will probably be a transient figure, certainly if he tries to double down on Putin's many mistakes.
It is clear that Putin has been baited and triggered by the West into behaving in this predictable and war-gamed way. He is walking down the pre-planned path of his own destruction. The only thing that could make a difference are the Chinese, who are more cautious and patient in their challenge to the West.
Having Russia on board was always part of their plan, but this more subtle, long-term plan has been thrown off balance by Putin's reckless Ukrainian gamble. Xi must be seriously considering how he can remove Putin from the picture without causing a total collapse in Russia. It's clear by now that Putin simply can't take the nods and hints the Chinese have been sending him.
This is a major structural issue in the geopolitical picture: China is the senior party in "Team Anti-America," but the junior party (Putin) is under the delusion that he is the top guy, or at least "more equal" than Xi.
So, to sum up the basics: Any additional mobilisation Russia does will (a) put more pressure on Russia's fragile home front and (b) have no substantial effect on the war. Therefore, all it does is put pressure on Russia's fragile home front.
That and nothing more.
And it is that which the war-gamers predict will cause the internal blow that will both remove Putin and avoid a nuclear war. Let's hope they are right.
Meanwhile in Russia...
And it is that which the war-gamers predict will cause the internal blow that will both remove Putin and avoid a nuclear war. Let's hope they are right.
Meanwhile in Russia...
Military mobilisation in Russia. Privet Andrey. pic.twitter.com/uo32T3qzRC
— Anton Shekhovtsov ✚ (@A_SHEKH0VTS0V) September 21, 2022
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Colin Liddell is the Chief Editor of Neokrat and the author of Interviews & Obituaries, a collection of encounters with the dead and the famous. Support his work by buying it here (USA), here (UK), and here (Australia).
Your poker analogy is spot on.
ReplyDeleteAlso, the desperate attempt to churn out more cannon fodder into the conflict sounds about as effective as printing money to save the financial market.