POOR U.S. JOB NUMBERS MAY REFLECT POSITIVE TRENDS

by Colin Liddell

The full story of Trumponomics is yet to be revealed, and I am not overly sanguine. However, I have my doubts about the latest headline story that "Trump is fucking up the economy," namely the recent revelations about job numbers. 

As reported by Bloomberg:

"US job growth cooled sharply over the past three months and the unemployment rate rose, showing the labor market is shifting into a lower gear amid widespread economic uncertainty.

Payrolls increased 73,000 in July after the prior two months were revised down by nearly 260,000, according to a Bureau of Labor Statistics report out Friday. In the last three months, employment growth has averaged a paltry 35,000 — the worst since the pandemic."

In fact, this is supposed to be really, really bad news, so much so that Trump flew off the handle and started firing bean counters. As reported by the BBC:

"President Donald Trump has fired the head of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) after the department revised down recent job numbers by more than 250,000.

He says the figures were "rigged" to make his administration 'look bad'."

But on the positive side, these job numbers could simply reflect the crack-down on illegal migrant workers by ICE, as a vast chunk of the US labour market is basically illegal labour.

As with anything in economics, the full picture is not entirely clear at the moment, especially as the data systems are not even set up to show the effects of immigration restriction. If the job figures are really being hit by this, then Trump should actually be boasting about them as proof of delivering his election promises to the American people.

Of course, the other big factor that could be hitting job numbers is the economically chilling effect of tariffs.

But if tariffs are to work at "reshoring" US manufacturing and solving severe supply chain weaknesses -- like the US's pathetic dependence on microchips from Taiwan -- then they will have to create significant shortage and price pressure to incentive home production. Simple as!

Anyway, it sounds better than a future WWIII with China over Taiwan.

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Colin Liddell is the Chief Editor of Neokrat and the author of Interviews & Obituaries, a collection of encounters with the dead and the famous. Support his work by buying his book here (USA), here (UK), and here (Australia), or by taking out a paid subscription on his Substack.

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