HOW WILL MAGA FALL APART?

by Colin Liddell

It is already obvious that MAGA has nothing to say of any substance, has hit a brick wall of economic reality, is deeply discredited, and is being held together solely by the rapidly corroding capstone of its aging and increasingly mentally deficient leader. It is also obvious that it must collapse in some way. But when and how remain open questions.

There are a number of factors to bear in mind when considering these questions. Firstly, the official Democrat opposition is weak and even more discredited due to its long flirtation with "the Woke," and secondly Trump has established something of a stranglehold on the GOP with his ability to "primary" opponents in the party.

This power is based on his fanatical and dumb supporters, who will reliably turn out in typically low-turn-out primary elections, giving them disproportionate leverage to shoot down any Republican rivals, combined with the giant political slush funds now at Trump's command. This is due to Trump’s billionaire friends, of whom Elon Musk is but one, as well as the money now under Trump's own control from the unprecedented corruption of the MAGA regime.

These factors mean that MAGA is not as brittle and weak as it should be.

To overturn MAGA we need to see several interlocking trends.

(1) The return of a relatively credible Democrat Party
(2) Trump's further decline in the polls
(3) GOP donors deserting Trump

But there are clear signs that all these are happening.

The Dems realise that being seen as too woke was a major mistake and that making Harris their candidate in 2024 just opened them up to this attack. Now most of the candidates being talked about as leadership figures -- Buttigieg, Pritzker, Walz, Shapiro, Newsome -- fit the category of being "stale, male, and pale" instead of "brat" (whatever that meant). This signals a clear departure from overly woke posturing.

Also, Trump's plummeting popularity is a thing. This is important because the more Trump falls in the polls the more Republicans will stand up to him. Being "primary-ed" is not even a threat if you're sure to lose the actual election after the primary.

Then there are the GOP donors. There is clear evidence that many of these are cooling in their enthusiasm for Trump after his mishandling of the economy, and are now backing away. As for Musk, he is apparently getting ready to quit politics after his various disasters.

This rapidly changing picture means that any Trump moves that relied on 100% GOP backing in Congress and Senate can now be defeated by a few defectors who will gain increasing financial support. Suddenly, almost everything that Trump wished to do and could get done when his approval rating was over 50% is open to challenge and stagnation.

The result of this is that we are now fast approaching the point where anything "controversial" by Trump will simply get bogged down or overturned, whether by the Supreme Court or by defections in Congress and the Senate.

This situation will also see a sharp rise in legal challenges to almost everything "controversial" that Trump has already done, such as DOGE, deportations using "war powers," and even his ability to switch tariffs on and off like a child playing with a light.

The irony here is that as MAGA weakens and faces more legal and political “override,” it will actually start behaving more like a normative Republican government, and therefore start performing better, slowing down its descent into incompetence and blatant corruption.

However, even in gelded form, Trump is almost certain to remain a major problem, and will continue to disgrace himself and his party. A lot of this stems from his narcissism and psychological shortcomings, but lets also throw in rapid aging. As the Midterms approach more and more Republicans will view him as a lame-duck and a liability, with at least some of them distancing themselves from him more openly.

So, how exactly will Trumpism finally implode?

My guess is that one of the main Republicans who will split from Trump will be JD Vance, someone who famously loathed Trump and probably still does, but who did a complete U-turn purely for the sake of cynical political ambition.

As Trump's popularity plummets, the incentives for Vance to keep his political future alive by splitting from Trump increase, and will be increasing rapidly in the weeks and months ahead. Vance cannot be fired by Trump because the VP is a constitutional officer with a fixed term of four years, and can only be removed by Congress impeaching him.

Any open break from Trump, however, puts Vance in a dangerous position himself, as Trump loyalists in Congress can combine with Democrats seeking a scalp to impeach Vance.

In order to avoid this, Vance, before making an open breach with Trump, would need to have enough support from other Republicans ready to ditch Trump and even some Democrats.

With Trump driving down GOP poll numbers, this is not as unlikely as it seems. If a "treacherous" Vance backed by a splinter group of Republicans, keen to save themselves at the polls, got together with Dems, an impeachment might be in the offing for Trump himself.

This could even happen before the midterms or shortly after, when Republican minds had been even more concentrated by serious Trump-inflicted reverses. Unlike Joe Biden, a senile Donald Trump is not going to quietly quit for the good of the party; he will have to be carried out, kicking and screaming. The plotting has probably already begun.

Italian PM Giorgia Meloni listening to a mentally deranged person

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Colin Liddell is the Chief Editor of Neokrat and the author of Interviews & Obituaries, a collection of encounters with the dead and the famous. Support his work by buying his book here (USA), here (UK), and here (Australia), or by taking out a paid subscription on his Substack.

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