It is easy to hate Trump (THE TURD IN THE WHITEHOUSE) and even easier to hate Putin (PUTIN'S MEAT CUBE). They are both the worst kind of scumbags, and they will both probably be dead soon. But there is also an underlying geopolitical rationale for what, at times, seems the weirdest of bromances. The problem is that this geopolitical rationale, or project, just has the two worst salesmen possible, both of whom are effectively dragging it down.
So, stripping out the two dysfunctional psychopaths who are currently sitting on top of this project, what exactly is it? What exactly is Trump-Putinism (without Trump and Putin to shit all over it)?
It is simply the idea that America and Russia are natural allies and that both nations gain from allying with each other in the great game of geopolitics.
Let's look at this in both a more essentialist and macro sense.
Essentially there are four-and-a-half major power centres in the world and plenty of mid-sized power centres. The big four are North America, Europe, Russia (when it is well run, i.e. Catherine the Great, Stalin, etc), and China. The "half" is India.
Essentially there are four-and-a-half major power centres in the world and plenty of mid-sized power centres. The big four are North America, Europe, Russia (when it is well run, i.e. Catherine the Great, Stalin, etc), and China. The "half" is India.
Of these big four, Europe and China are qualitatively much higher, with more and smarter people for a lot longer, and should, on the basis of that, be the dominant two. However, China is held back by historical drag and Europe by its national divisions. This allows America and Russia (when it is well run) to stay in the game. Europe, too, suffers from historical drag left over from WWII, while America, with essentially no history to speak of, in a macro sense, largely escapes the effects of historical drag.
Another key point is that it is always easier to ally with remoter powers than adjacent ones, which gives us the classic "chequerboard" pattern of geopolitics. There are obvious reasons for this -- less overlap of interests and less historical drag. Right now, China and Russia are aligned, and even allied to some degree, but Russia is also sitting on a vast area of what used to be the Qing Empire, stolen from China in its "Century of Humiliation." This is significant historical drag that will ultimately have consequences.
Next, we come to the Thucydides Trap, the theory that when a rising power threatens to displace a higher power, war is highly likely between them. We can hopefully downgrade the possibility of war to a certainty of intense rivalry.
In the late 20th century, America, which has been the leading global power since 1945 (or slightly earlier), faced several challengers, first the Soviet Union, then Japan, and then the European Union (a more nebulous challenge). The Soviet Union was contained and allowed to self destruct, Japan was co-opted (a complex and interesting story), while the EU has been flattered and kept friendly until comparatively recently (something in which the UK played a key mediative role until 2016).
In the late 20th century, America, which has been the leading global power since 1945 (or slightly earlier), faced several challengers, first the Soviet Union, then Japan, and then the European Union (a more nebulous challenge). The Soviet Union was contained and allowed to self destruct, Japan was co-opted (a complex and interesting story), while the EU has been flattered and kept friendly until comparatively recently (something in which the UK played a key mediative role until 2016).
But from the 1990s onwards, America started to face a deeper challenge from China. China has the economic dynamism of 70s and 80s Japan, the bulk of Europe, and the political centralisation and inherent animosity of the Soviet Union. In 2025, China is the main challenger to America's number one spot, and threatens America in several key ways.
Let us consider the financial threat. This is multifarious and includes things like tech, exports, and manufacturing, but also much else. America has been pouring its debt (and therefore social inferiority) into China on a massive scale through its trade deficit (re-exported around the World in Belt-and-Road projects); while China has been outsourcing its inherent unemployment (and therefore political instability) into America.
But Japan is also very much part of this picture due to its vital role in the increased liquidity it has provided with its flatlining interest rates for so long. In fact, this is the basis of America's crypto and 401s (tax-advantaged retirement savings) asset bubble, as financial entities borrow yen at zero, and buy assets with a profit margin. China's rise threatens much of this by forcing the Japanese economy to switch from providing liquidity to an overheating US economy to reinvesting in its own military power. I won't even mention US tech's troubling dependency on Taiwan's chips.
But Japan is also very much part of this picture due to its vital role in the increased liquidity it has provided with its flatlining interest rates for so long. In fact, this is the basis of America's crypto and 401s (tax-advantaged retirement savings) asset bubble, as financial entities borrow yen at zero, and buy assets with a profit margin. China's rise threatens much of this by forcing the Japanese economy to switch from providing liquidity to an overheating US economy to reinvesting in its own military power. I won't even mention US tech's troubling dependency on Taiwan's chips.
These two factors -- Japan-supplied liquidity and Taiwanese chips -- mean that the USA effectively has a "border" with China. According to the laws of geopolitics, this makes them inherent rivals and possible enemies.
The one country America has no meaningful border or "friction line" with is Russia, unless you take a Europhile view (Muh European homeland!). Back in the days of the Soviet Union, things were different. Communism was a global threat, and the USSR's alignment with "decolonization" even threatened America's internal racial dynamics. Also, the Warsaw Pact was a direct threat to countries like the UK, etc., that were deeply in hock to America. In fact, Britain only finished paying off its World War II debts to the United States on 29 December 2006!
So, once you wipe off the Trumpist and Putinist gunge, there is actually a sensible basis for Russia and the US to ally.
A US-allied Russia, as people like Trump advisor Elbridge Colby realise, can provide a very convenient back-door threat to China that could help to contain its rising, and even superior, power.
Also, the USA can't expect Europe to remain a self-weakening welfare queen forever. Viewed through a macro lens, the EU has become increasingly united and economically interwoven, despite a few blips, in the last 30 years, and its currency remains a real threat to dollar dominance. The war in the Ukraine will very probably help the EU to flush out a few more weaknesses and accelerate its path to a stronger union. We shall see. But a US-allied Russia would also be a convenient means of the US exerting leverage in that direction.
A US-allied Russia, as people like Trump advisor Elbridge Colby realise, can provide a very convenient back-door threat to China that could help to contain its rising, and even superior, power.
Also, the USA can't expect Europe to remain a self-weakening welfare queen forever. Viewed through a macro lens, the EU has become increasingly united and economically interwoven, despite a few blips, in the last 30 years, and its currency remains a real threat to dollar dominance. The war in the Ukraine will very probably help the EU to flush out a few more weaknesses and accelerate its path to a stronger union. We shall see. But a US-allied Russia would also be a convenient means of the US exerting leverage in that direction.
As for Russia, it is only strong when it has a great leader, and Putin, who once seemed that way, has now been exposed as a poor one, maybe even the worst. Rather than Alexander I, he is Tsar Nicholas II. Rather than Stalin, he is Brezhnev or even another Yeltsin!
But when Putin and Trump are mopped up into their respective buckets and flushed down the toilet of history, the permanent underlying interests of a Russian state and the United States will remain, and they line up pretty well. The goal of European and Chinese leaders should be to frustrate this "low-human-capital" synergy from being realised.
But when Putin and Trump are mopped up into their respective buckets and flushed down the toilet of history, the permanent underlying interests of a Russian state and the United States will remain, and they line up pretty well. The goal of European and Chinese leaders should be to frustrate this "low-human-capital" synergy from being realised.
Never again!
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Colin Liddell is the Chief Editor of Neokrat and the author of Interviews & Obituaries, a collection of encounters with the dead and the famous. Support his work by buying his book here (USA), here (UK), and here (Australia), or by taking out a paid subscription on his Substack.
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