Japan has a new plan to stop Trump's tariffs
The point of knowing things and being smart is not to just know things and be smart, it is to use that intelligence to infer things that you don't definitely know. So it is with politics. Sticking just to the known facts is dull, pointless, and all too obvious. What we can 'know' beyond what we can absolutely prove is the point.
In the case of the new Japanese Prime Minister, however, there are not only facts to build on, there are also "anti-facts," which I would describe as things that have happened that shouldn't have happened and things that should have happened that failed to happen.
Anti-facts are there whenever you feel something isn't quite right, and with the rise of Sanae Takaichi to the Prime Ministership of Japan things feel distinctly odd.
First of all, Japan is a little bit like Russia in that most of the population is relatively depoliticised and uninterested in politics. There is a lack of emotional energy in Japanese "democracy," allowing hidden elites to control things.
The difference from Russia, however, is that those elites are big business and the major Japanese companies, rather than the siloviki and their placemen. The approach of the Japanese elites to politics is determined not by what's good for the Japanese people, of course, but by what's good for Japan Inc. and themselves.
The difference from Russia, however, is that those elites are big business and the major Japanese companies, rather than the siloviki and their placemen. The approach of the Japanese elites to politics is determined not by what's good for the Japanese people, of course, but by what's good for Japan Inc. and themselves.
With this in mind, the rather unexpected rise to power of Takaichi is totally queer, as she cuts directly across the interests of Japan Inc. The two most obvious ways in which she does this are:
- She ruffles the feathers of the Chinese and the Koreans with her performative Japanese ultranationalism. Japan Inc. reaps enormous benefits from positive business ties to China, and no major Japanese corporation can easily cut the Chinese out of its supply chains.
- She make Japan's increasing reliance on imported labour much more difficult. Japan Inc. is now addicted to the drug of ever-increasing migrant labour. In fact, the previous PM and LDP leader, Shigeru Ishiba was even talking about creating African-friendly cities in Japan.
So, to sum up, Japan Inc., which essentially controls Japanese politics, allowed or even assisted Takaichi in becoming PM. Yes, the logic is well off line here, suggesting additional facts and hidden factors.
Following the resignation of Shigeru Ishiba in September, the natural choice for PM would have been Shinjirō Koizumi, whose ascent looked at one time as all but inevitable.
Following the resignation of Shigeru Ishiba in September, the natural choice for PM would have been Shinjirō Koizumi, whose ascent looked at one time as all but inevitable.
The most likely explanation is that this did not happen because strings were pulled by hidden hands. But why put Takaichi in?
The answer would need to be one that made sense to Japan Inc. The only real benefit to them of a Takaichi prime ministership is that she would reduce the threat of tariffs, which has been the main obsession of Japanese elites since November last year.
Takaichi is regarded in Japan as the major politician who is most simpatico to Donald Trump. This is because she is seen as the "political daughter" of Trump's former close ally Shinzo Abe, and her "Japan first" populist schtick is a sort of 'tribute act' to MAGA.
It does not seem unlikely, therefore, that the hands that pull the strings in Tokyo decided to interrupt their default Sinophilia and love of mass immigration to put in a J-MAGA populist for a few months in order to blow smoke up Trump's ass and stave off some tariffs.
The elites in Japan follow American politics almost as closely as they follow their own politics, and they fully expect Trump to be a spent force within little over a year. Takaichi may be intended as a safety stopgap to cover this dangerous period.
The elites in Japan follow American politics almost as closely as they follow their own politics, and they fully expect Trump to be a spent force within little over a year. Takaichi may be intended as a safety stopgap to cover this dangerous period.
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Colin Liddell is the Chief Editor of Neokrat and the author of Interviews & Obituaries, a collection of encounters with the dead and the famous. Support his work by buying his book here (USA), here (UK), and here (Australia), or by taking out a paid subscription on his Substack.
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