WHY THE TORY PARTY WILL SWING TO THE LEFT

by Daniel Barge

To those on the Right, the answer to the question in the title above is something of a no-brainer. Surely the Tories are going to recover from the massive drubbing they took in the election by swinging to the right and hoovering up all those Reform UK votes. 

The logic behind this seems solid. After all, the Tory vote and the Reform UK vote together would have added up to 39% of the vote, compared to Labour's 33%. Even with the oddities caused by the UK's "First Past the Post" constituency system, that should have resulted in a solid victory over Labour.

But there are a few flaws with this theory.

Firstly, in order to hoover up Reform UK and shut it down as a future option, the Tories would have to become Reform UK and be a lot more hard-line on immigration, as well as gain one or two other things that Reform UK use to appeal to their voter base -- i.e. Nigel Farage.

Assuming they moved to those positions, got Farage on board instead of vice-versa, and picked up hard-right voters, the likelihood is that they would just lose other voters on the other side, centrists who are not comfortable with those policies. Even then, many Reform UK voters might still distrust them and still not vote Tory again.

Secondly, there is a massive assumption that the Tories are the natural second choice of the Reform UK voters. Polls reveal this to be far from the case. For example, a recent YouGov poll asked, "Please imagine that Reform UK were not standing in your constituency at the next election. In this scenario, which party would you vote for?" Only 36% said they would vote Tory!

Thirdly, a lot of the reluctance to vote Tory is undoubtedly "rage against the incumbent." Now that the Tories are in opposition, some of that Reform UK vote, along with other votes for Labour and the Lib Dems, can be expected to seep back to the Tories without them doing anything, as they are "detoxified" by simply being out of power.

Fourthly, in nearly all of the 121 remaining Tory seats as well as in the 251 seats they lost, the main opponent is not a party to the Right, i.e. Reform UK, but parties on the Left, namely Labour and the Lib Dems. This means that to defend their existing seats as well as to win back former seats they will need to appeal to voters attracted to those parties.

For example, in ex-Prime Minister Liz Truss's formerly safe Conservative seat of South West Norfolk, where they lost by 630 votes, the Conservatives can win it back more easily by appealing to some of the 20,747 voters, who voted for the Labour, Lib Dem, or Independent candidates (a Tory centrist) than by appealing to the 9,958 voters who voted Reform UK.

For these reasons, despite the temptations to vote for a "based brown woman" like Kemi Badenoch or Suella Braverman as leader, the Tories are more likely to put in a comparative moderate who can win back Centrist voters. This will have the effect of walling off the Reform UK vote at a level that, under the UK's electoral system, will ensure its continuing electoral irrelevance and the probable death of Reform UK as a party.

In essence, it is an easier option for the Conservative Party to "starve" this more right-wing alternative to death in this way than to enter a bidding war with it for its voters and swing right.

British nationalism will have to find another way.