The map above is dated 2018, and the data is probably a bit older, but I believe this is a generally accurate picture of the ongoing demographic situation in Europe and Anatolia (which, ahem, isn't in Europe).
It shows quite clearly that most of the continent is in negative fertility, with a few pockets of positive growth.
Apparently the areas around Paris and Marseille, the Catholic rural areas of Northern Ireland, and parts of Romania, Bulgaria, Albania, as well as some towns in England, are doing quite well when it comes to having children.
No doubt part of this is due to the higher fertility of still unassimilated non-European immigrant population. But, setting that aside, the main pattern that we see is the well established one of plunging Southern European fertility rates (around 1.1 to 1.5), while most northern European countries are generally holding up quite well, in the 1.6 to 2 range.
The great irony here is that the more Catholic, Orthodox, and traditional European countries seem to have the lowest fertility, while the more secular parts of Europe are doing less badly, if not better.
It shows quite clearly that most of the continent is in negative fertility, with a few pockets of positive growth.
Apparently the areas around Paris and Marseille, the Catholic rural areas of Northern Ireland, and parts of Romania, Bulgaria, Albania, as well as some towns in England, are doing quite well when it comes to having children.
No doubt part of this is due to the higher fertility of still unassimilated non-European immigrant population. But, setting that aside, the main pattern that we see is the well established one of plunging Southern European fertility rates (around 1.1 to 1.5), while most northern European countries are generally holding up quite well, in the 1.6 to 2 range.
The great irony here is that the more Catholic, Orthodox, and traditional European countries seem to have the lowest fertility, while the more secular parts of Europe are doing less badly, if not better.
Why would this be?
I think a possible explanation for this is because the countries with the lowest fertility rates here are also the ones where women were treated the worst and where their position subsequently improved the most in terms of "feminist values," i.e. having more rights, freedom, and economic opportunities.
Women in the north always had a bit more of these to begin with.
So, it is this "radical" shift from traditionalism to modernity that seems to have the most depressive effect on fertility. Women who have lived in societies with fewer options and who have traditionally been forced into marriages they didn't really want but who then see their societies overtaken by economic growth, etc, are the ones that swing most drastically towards low fertility.
I think a possible explanation for this is because the countries with the lowest fertility rates here are also the ones where women were treated the worst and where their position subsequently improved the most in terms of "feminist values," i.e. having more rights, freedom, and economic opportunities.
Women in the north always had a bit more of these to begin with.
So, it is this "radical" shift from traditionalism to modernity that seems to have the most depressive effect on fertility. Women who have lived in societies with fewer options and who have traditionally been forced into marriages they didn't really want but who then see their societies overtaken by economic growth, etc, are the ones that swing most drastically towards low fertility.
Typical Southern European family when women were treated like shit
If this is true for women within the context of Europe, will it not also be true within a wider context?
Will women from the high fertility countries of the "Deep South," that is the Middle East and Africa, also go into a demographic plunge as successive waves of modernity and economic growth sweep over their societies?
Will women from the high fertility countries of the "Deep South," that is the Middle East and Africa, also go into a demographic plunge as successive waves of modernity and economic growth sweep over their societies?
Fertility rates in the Middle East and even in some African countries suggest this might possibly be happening. If it does, where is Europe's future "Great Replacement" population going to come from?
Also, looking even further down the same road, where is Africa's?
Also, looking even further down the same road, where is Africa's?
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Colin Liddell is the Chief Editor of Neokrat and the author of Interviews & Obituaries, a collection of encounters with the dead and the famous. Support his work by buying it here (USA), here (UK), and here (Australia).
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