PUTIN "NOT FEELING IT"

Vlad Vexler on Putin's big speech:

In his 4 hour long 'Direct-Line'/press conference,  Putin set out a "minimum effective dose" approach to the 2024 'election'. He knows it's a necessary legitimation ritual, but he can't bring himself to strain over it.

Putin didn't want to be there. He finds his predicament not critical but exhausting. He is not worried about keeping the show on the road, but he is worried that it all now takes double the mental labour, since February 2022.

Putin's election tactic, for now, is to set himself a low bar and then clear it. Minimal promises, minimal rallying cries, and minimal effort to come up with surprises or put on a show.

Mark Galeotti elaborates excellently on this:

Vladimir #Putin bores the nation

Quick thoughts on Putin's marathon-snorathon today for @SpecCoffeeHouse: essentially, he tells the #Russia|n people hunker down, because war is the new normal

There was a certain tension between normalisation and reformatting society onto a war footing. On the one hand, Putin put a distance between himself and the delirium of state propaganda. On the other hand, he emphasised that it is teachers and priests who win wars. Putin spent several minutes downplaying the chances of a second mobilisation, but at the end he qualified himself: "Why do we need a mobilisation? From *where we stand today*, it is not necessary." 

Putin returned to the original justificatory tags for the war of 'demilitarisation' and 'denazification'. He emphasised that the war is entirely defensive, existential, and that in the worst case scenario Russia's existence will be at stake. 

Putin claimed that to answer the existential threat Russia faces, it needs to put front and centre "the strengthening of its sovereignty". Putin kicked off the event with this statement - but then went on to say that he can't be bothered to define it on this occasion!

Let's briefly entertain ourselves with Mr Dugin's summary of Putin's event: 

"Putin's broadcast is evidently the speech of a victor. And not an artificial victor but a natural one, a victor organically and substantially."

Putin touched on the theme of Western decline, which is for him an inevitability which is not materialising fast enough. He feels bitter about history temporarily turning against him, even though - he thinks - he will be proved right in the end.

He expressed confidence about support from Western citizens for his actions:

"In many German towns [& in the rest of the West] there are plenty of people who feel that we are in the right".

My view: Putin's observation is more right than most Western commentators allow. 

Similarly, Putin expressed confidence that Western support for Ukraine will dry up, but showed frustration that this wasn't happening fast enough:

"The juicy deal Ukraine has been getting looks like it may be, little by little, coming to an end."

At home, he inadvertently acknowledged persecution of all opposition. Asked about the verdict against Alexandra Bayazitova, the administrator of a Telegram channel, Putin said: 

"Why would we be hunting her down, is she some kind of major opposition figure?"