British voters: the return of the sosij?
Personally, I think that immigration is the most important political issue for the UK. However, it's more important what the mass of voters think, as that's what decides elections, governments, and political development.
In recent years, as the impact of decades of laissez-faire demographic liberalism have taken their toll, we have passed through a period of "heightened concern" about immigration and multiculturalism. This is what led to the 2016 Brexit vote and may even have been part of the SNP surge in 2014.
In fact, as you can see from the graph below, immigration was pretty much the most important issue for almost every single voter group in 2016 and for a few years on either side. Only older richer people in all-White neighbourhoods (AB) and private renters were more concerned about the National Health Service.
In recent years, as the impact of decades of laissez-faire demographic liberalism have taken their toll, we have passed through a period of "heightened concern" about immigration and multiculturalism. This is what led to the 2016 Brexit vote and may even have been part of the SNP surge in 2014.
In fact, as you can see from the graph below, immigration was pretty much the most important issue for almost every single voter group in 2016 and for a few years on either side. Only older richer people in all-White neighbourhoods (AB) and private renters were more concerned about the National Health Service.
2016 (click image to expand)
Did this signify, as many in the Dissident Right hoped, the long foretold awakening of the British race? Had the Saxon finally "come to hate"? Were we seeing a reassertion of the native "vril" of these Atlantic islands, "cursed by the winds but blessed by the sea"?
The election of 2019 and the collapse of Labour "Redwall" seats seemed to point in this direction.
Boris
Since then, we've had the economic dislocation from Brexit, which hasn't yet been offset much by its "opportunities," combined with the effects of Covid, the lockdown, and the war in the Ukraine, with their negative effects on prices, inflation, economic planning, and the NHS. Brexit has also severely impacted the supply of low-profile (i.e. White), productive labour to the UK with various knock-on effects.
In short, compared to 2016, the economic picture in 2023 has become more complex and a little darker.
Yes, only a little. Really, it's important to emphasise this point: people are not really that much worse off than they were in 2016. At worst, they're probably a couple of percentage points down on average, and, who knows, they might even be slightly better off but simply feeling less optimistic:
However, how has this slight perceived change in the economic temperature impacted on the supposed "racial awakening" of the Great British people?
Here are the main concerns for the various voter groups in 2023:
Here are the main concerns for the various voter groups in 2023:
2023 (click image to expand)
Yes, the silly buggers, they've forgotten all about the "Great Replacement," the relentless browning of British society, etc. It's now back to "OMG, inflation's gone up a couple of points" and "muh economy." And if it wasn't that, it would be: "I've been eating too much sausage and chips; I hope the NHS can handle my heart triple bypass surgery."
Of course, the racially-aware, immigration-aware voter demographic that briefly bobbed to the surface in 2016 is still there, but it's mainly embodied in a group of older people (+65s) who "just don't recognise their towns anymore," but they of course won't be living in them that much longer.
Younger voters, meanwhile, don't appear to give a flying fuck. This may be because a higher proportion of them are of migrant background (the available data is careful not to look to closely into this). However, even this group viewed immigration and the economy as issues of almost equal importance a few years ago. Now look at the gap.
Importance of immigration vs the economy for 18-24s (click image to expand) source
For "normie" politics, as opposed to the LARPy or extremely speculative Dissident Right variety, what this means is that the political parties will start to adjust their platforms accordingly.
For the last few years, both Conservative and Labour have been in thrall to Boris Johnson's 2019 landslide victory; Labour to stop it happening again, the Tories to repeat it (or partially repeat it). A big part of that landslide appeared to be a stronger strand of identitarianism and concern about immigration, but actual polling reveals that once again, "it's the economy stupid," and immigration is back in the passenger seat.
When the economy sneezes the British voter catches cold feet.
For the last few years, both Conservative and Labour have been in thrall to Boris Johnson's 2019 landslide victory; Labour to stop it happening again, the Tories to repeat it (or partially repeat it). A big part of that landslide appeared to be a stronger strand of identitarianism and concern about immigration, but actual polling reveals that once again, "it's the economy stupid," and immigration is back in the passenger seat.
When the economy sneezes the British voter catches cold feet.
The British electorate have a limited interest in their own Greatness
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Colin Liddell is the Chief Editor of Neokrat and the author of Interviews & Obituaries, a collection of encounters with the dead and the famous. Support his work by buying it here (USA), here (UK), and here (Australia).
I highly doubt your average 18 to 24 year old even knows what inflation is tbh I can only speak from my own limited local perspective but people constantly go on immigration and they aren't 65 plus. A lot of people don't say they're against immigration because being against anything is seen as "hate" and that's bad, obviously, they also don't want to be perceived as "racist" so people usually approach it as economic rather than indentitarian. This is usually what I infer when people talk about these matters.
ReplyDeleteIt will be interesting in the coming years when minorities become more dominant and more overtly aggressive, although they already are like that. I wonder what will break the camels back or is this passivism will just continue until the negation of us as our own ethnic groups.
Good point. There is a lot of weird "displacement" going on. A massive chunk of respondents know or intuit that stating what they think about immigration/multiculturalism is "taboo," and this nebulous disquiet goes into "economic issues," when the reality is people aren't really that much worse off, if at all.
DeleteThe President of the United States has been a screwup in all metrics, so I reckon immigration is just as important as the economy, and people in the States instinctively tie them together, since, obviously Mexicans "do jobs Americans won't do." But, while there will be a push against more immigration, there will be no white great awakening.
ReplyDelete