WHAT DROVE NATO EXPANSION IN EASTERN EUROPE?

Chechnya

Vladimir Putin claims that the cause of the present war in the Ukraine is "aggressive" NATO expansion into the territories of the Warsaw Pact. How true is this? Is Russia really an innocent victim of the bullying West?

Let's consider the evidence. Since 1990 and the collapse of the Soviet Empire, NATO has been expanding eastwards. This happened in two main waves. In 1999 Poland, Czechia, and Hungary joined. Then in 2004 the three Baltic States (Estonia, Latvia, & Lithuania), Slovakia, Slovenia, Romania, and Bulgaria joined. 

It should be stressed that NATO is a purely defensive alliance and that none of these countries were coerced into joining it. All did so freely. This is in marked contrast to the former Warsaw Pact that dominated Eastern Europe during the Cold War. All the members of that organisation were there for one reason only -- they had been forced to join. 

Additionally, the first three Eastern European nations to join NATO were all nations that had been aggressively invaded by the Soviet Union.

In 1939 Poland had been invaded by the Red Army in conjunction with Nazi Germany. Five years later the country was invaded again by the Red Army, who rounded up, killed, or imprisoned anyone supporting an independent Poland. Likewise, the other two countries that joined in 1999 were also invaded by the Red Army. Indeed, they were invaded while they were actually members of the Warsaw Pact -- Hungary in 1956 and Czechia in 1968. So, it was not a very effective "alliance" for them.

Prague 1968

All three countries in the first wave of NATO expansion thus had a strong moral case to seek the sort of protection that the purely defensive NATO alliance could bring. Furthermore, even though Russia was "just about" a democracy during the 1990s, it was already showing signs of authoritarian rule and military revanchism. It fought its first brutal campaign in Chechnya between 1994 and 1996. Although it failed to bring the Chechens to heal, this was a good indicator or future Russian methods and intent.

A few months after this first wave of NATO expansion in 1999, the three new members must have been feeling very pleased with themselves, as Russia then embarked on a much more intense Second Chechen War. That destroyed much of Chechnya and led to numerous scenes like this:

The horrors of the Chechen War were a strong reminder to any country in Eastern Europe that trusting Russia and expecting it to "play nice" was a naïve approach. If Chechnya was on the menu so was any other former Soviet or Warsaw Pact territory. Naturally enough, there was a stampede to NATO's door. Having already allowed Poland, Czechia, and Hungary to join, how could NATO now say no to Romania or Estonia?

Yes, Russia, through its constant aggression in the past and more recently, has effectively pushed all NATO's new members to join.

This is also the case with NATO's two latest additions, Finland and Sweden, who were triggered into joining the Alliance by the recent invasion of the Ukraine.

If a country doesn't want to be surrounded by a defensive alliance, maybe it should simply try dialling back on the aggression and violence against its neighbours. 

Also published at Empires & Revolution