The bipolar emo-sphere that is the American-dominated internet is aflame right now with cheap tribalistic emotion because the Supreme Court finally came out with its reversal of the ramshackle 1973 Roe Vs. Wade "protection of privacy" ruling that was used to impose de facto blanket abortion rights across America.
But what difference will it actually make? Time to crunch some numbers.
According to abortion data for 2020, there were 930,160 abortions in the US, which works out at just over a fifth of pregnancies. I assume this figure is largely typical.
Will the reversal of Roe vs Wade greatly reduce this? That depends on what the individual states do, because all that reversing RvW means is that abortion now becomes a states issue.
Will the reversal of Roe vs Wade greatly reduce this? That depends on what the individual states do, because all that reversing RvW means is that abortion now becomes a states issue.
According to the Washington Post thirteen states already have trigger laws, which means they will ban abortion immediately. Another seven states are thought likely to join them. Of course, pro-abortion states will maintain existing abortion rights.
Adding up the totals, we have 103,200 abortions in the states with trigger laws, a further 85,990 abortions in the likely ban category, and 740,970 abortions in states that are highly likely to continue the practice.
Of course, even in the states that outright "ban" abortion, there are likely to be various kinds of exceptions for reasons of the mother's health or because of rape and consent issues, which might become an interesting loophole. But, even if we assume all 189,190 abortions in both of the ban category states would be included in the bans, how many of the embryos will actually be "saved" from the abortionist's tools?
My guess is very few, as there will be no ban on the freedom of movement of the pregnant.
I would estimate that over 90% of those mothers will be able to travel to pro-abortion states quite easily. That means that around 97-98% of abortions will still happen.
Of the 10% of unwanted pregnancies that will be born in anti-abortion states (less than 18,000 per year), what kind of mothers will these children have, what kind of upbringing will they get, and what kind of citizens will they become? Possibly some of them will become doctors and rocket scientists, although I doubt that that will be at all typical.
I would estimate that over 90% of those mothers will be able to travel to pro-abortion states quite easily. That means that around 97-98% of abortions will still happen.
Of the 10% of unwanted pregnancies that will be born in anti-abortion states (less than 18,000 per year), what kind of mothers will these children have, what kind of upbringing will they get, and what kind of citizens will they become? Possibly some of them will become doctors and rocket scientists, although I doubt that that will be at all typical.
But, regardless of such eugenics arguments, this reversal of Roe vs Wade is unlikely to be the massive event that the "rah-rah-rah" theatrics on the internet right now suggest.
Yes, the internet is hyperventilating again in a desperate attempt to make your drab, uneventful life seem more interesting.
Yes, the internet is hyperventilating again in a desperate attempt to make your drab, uneventful life seem more interesting.
Colin Liddell is the Chief Editor of Neokrat and the author of Interviews & Obituaries, a collection of encounters with the dead and the famous. Support his work by buying it here (USA), here (UK), and here (Australia).
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